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Forecast

Birchip West (35.9794°S, 142.8748°E, 107m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Clearing shower 18°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:13am EDT 6:40am EDT 7:47pm EDT 8:13pm EDT
    NOW
    12.1° Feels Like: 9.8°
    Relative Humidity: 82%
    Dew: 9.1°
    Wind: WSW 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1015.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Birchip West
    Now
    12.4°c
    Feels Like:
    8.8°
    Wind:
    W 17km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    78%
    Clearing shower
     
    Min
    18°
    Max
    Today in Birchip West
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Areas of raised dust in the afternoon, mainly in the west. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming W/SW 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching around 18.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    Min
    18°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 4 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Birchip West

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Areas of raised dust in the afternoon, mainly in the west. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming W/SW 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching around 18.

    Forecast for Birchip West (35.9794°S, 142.8748°E, 107m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Clearing shower Fog then sunny Fog then sunny Fog then sunny Sunny Cloud increasing Clearing shower
    Minimum 10° 14° 11°
    Maximum 18° 21° 25° 29° 33° 34° 22°
    Chance of rain 40% 5% 5% 5% 5% 40% 30%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 21
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W WSW WSW WSW S SW ENE W NE NNW N WNW WSW WSW
    Relative humidity 72% 47% 78% 49% 79% 43% 70% 35% 52% 24% 38% 31% 62% 43%
    Dew point 4°C 6°C 6°C 9°C 7°C 11°C 9°C 11°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 15°C 8°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Birchip West Rain Forecast


    Birchip West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Birchip West Rain Forecast


    Birchip West 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    3
    3
    6
    6
    6
    6
    5
    5
    7
    5
    9
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Birchip West Rain Forecast


    Birchip West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Birchip West Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Oct 14
    12.5 °C 24.0 °C
    0.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    4.0 °C 23.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    10.5 °C 20.5 °C
    5.4 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    5.8 °C 18.0 °C
    2.0 mm
    Friday
    Oct 18
    2.5 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Birchip West minimum temp history (35.9794°S, 142.8748°E, 107m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.1° 02/10/2019 Coldest this month 1.2° 01/10/2019
    Hottest on record 37.6 12/10/2004 Coldest on record -1.5 15/10/1970
    Hottest this year 44.0° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -3.0° 24/08/2019
    Long term average 22.0° Long term average 7.7°
    Average this month 21.9° Average this month 6.9°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.6° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 5.7° 1970
    Birchip West rainfall history (35.9794°S, 142.8748°E, 107m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 5.4mm 16/10/2019 Total This Month 7.8mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 37.4mm 8.5 days Wettest October on record 150.8mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Birchip West Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 335.4mm 93.5 day(s)
    Total For 2019 268.1mm 98.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 169.5mm 92.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 27.0mm Jun12
    Lowest Temperature -3.0°C Aug24
    Highest Temperature 44.0°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Birchip West Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.8 30.6 27.2 22.5 17.9 14.6 14.0 15.6 18.3 22.0 25.8 28.7 22.3
    Mean Min (°C) 14.0 14.1 12.1 9.1 6.7 4.6 3.9 4.5 5.9 7.7 10.1 12.2 8.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 26.2 21.6 20.3 26.4 39.8 38.0 40.4 42.9 42.4 37.4 30.4 26.9 392.4
    Mean Rain Days 4.5 3.7 4.8 6.4 10.8 13.1 15.2 14.5 12.0 8.5 7.0 5.7 103.8