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Forecast

Baw Baw (37.8398°S, 146.2634°E, 1470m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Snow tending to rain -3°
    snow tending to rain
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:28am EDT 5:57am EDT 8:02pm EDT 8:31pm EDT
    NOW
    -0.2° Feels Like: -8.1°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: -0.2°
    Wind: WSW 30km/h
    Gust: 54km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.8mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Baw Baw
    Now
    -0.7°c
    Feels Like:
    -7.5°
    Wind:
    WSW 24km/h
    Gusts:
    39km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Snow tending to rain
     
    -3°
    Min
    Max
    Today in Baw Baw
    Cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 19.
    Tomorrow
    Snow tending to rain
    -3°
    Min
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the southwest, most likely in the morning. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 23.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 19.

    Forecast for Baw Baw (37.8398°S, 146.2634°E, 1470m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Snow tending to rain Mostly cloudy Late shower Mostly cloudy Late shower Mostly cloudy Clearing shower
    Minimum -3° -1°
    Maximum 10° 15° 13°
    Chance of rain 70% 30% 90% 20% 40% 50% 60%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Severe Moderate Moderate High High Moderate Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 21
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW W W W W WSW NW WNW WNW W
    Relative humidity 86% 84% 87% 78% 77% 79% 77% 71% 73% 75% 60% 59% 64% 73%
    Dew point -3°C 0°C 2°C 7°C 1°C 5°C -2°C 1°C -1°C 3°C 1°C 6°C 3°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Baw Baw Rain Forecast


    Baw Baw 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 November to 1 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 November to 23 November, and 15 December to 19 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Baw Baw Rain Forecast


    Baw Baw 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    8
    3
    8
    6
    5
    5
    7
    8
    5
    3
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Baw Baw Rain Forecast


    Baw Baw 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 November to 1 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 November to 23 November, and 15 December to 19 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Baw Baw Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Nov 08
    -0.8 °C -0.5 °C
    32.2 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 09
    -3.6 °C -
    24.8 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 10
    - 7.3 °C
    -
    Monday
    Nov 11
    1.4 °C 13.5 °C
    2.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 12
    1.7 °C 2 °C
    2.6 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Baw Baw minimum temp history (37.8398°S, 146.2634°E, 1470m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 20.5° 01/11/2019 Coldest this month -3.6° 09/11/2019
    Hottest on record 26.0 29/11/2012 Coldest on record -4.5 16/11/2006
    Hottest this year 30.0° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.3° 23/08/2019
    Long term average 12.3° Long term average 4.2°
    Average this month 8.8° Average this month 2.1°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 14.2° 2007 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 1.5° 1999
    Baw Baw rainfall history (37.8398°S, 146.2634°E, 1470m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 33.2mm 05/11/2019 Total This Month 115.4mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 162.1mm 15.6 days Wettest November on record 245.0mm 2007
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Baw Baw Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1604.3mm 170.0 day(s)
    Total For 2019 1509.0mm 163.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 1111.6mm 146.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 44.0mm Sep 9
    Lowest Temperature -5.3°C Aug23
    Highest Temperature 30.0°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Baw Baw Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 17.3 16.8 14.0 9.9 6.3 3.5 2.0 3.0 5.8 8.7 12.3 14.4 9.5
    Mean Min (°C) 8.6 8.4 6.4 3.8 1.5 -0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -0.1 1.6 4.2 5.8 3.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 98.7 108.2 102.0 147.0 136.6 163.0 175.3 177.6 176.8 157.0 162.1 141.6 1713.2
    Mean Rain Days 12.3 11.5 13.5 15.3 15.2 15.5 19.1 18.7 15.6 17.7 15.6 14.9 151.7