Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Fire Weather Warning
for Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country forecast districts
Issued at 04:41 PM EDT on Sunday 08 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot north to northwesterly winds developing on Monday ahead of a cooler, gusty southwesterly change, expected over the west during the afternoon and central districts during the evening.
For Monday 09 December:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Mallee
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Wimmera and Northern Country
The CFA advises that you:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.emergency.vic.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.cfa.vic.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Monday.
Forecast
Batchica (36.1878°S, 142.3969°E, 104m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW19° 43° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:38am EDT 6:08am EDT 8:38pm EDT 9:08pm EDT NOW19.7° Feels Like: 15.0° Relative Humidity: 25% Dew: -0.9° Wind: ENE 13km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1014.6hPa -
Today Weather
BatchicaNow21.3°cFeels Like:17.3°Wind:NE 9km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:21%19°Min43°MaxToday in BatchicaMostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with little or no rainfall in the southwest in the afternoon and evening. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting cooler, squally SW 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 41.Tomorrow19°Min43°MaxCloud clearing. Winds SW 20 to 25 km/h turning S 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with little or no rainfall in the southwest in the afternoon and evening. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting cooler, squally SW 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 41.
Forecast for Batchica (36.1878°S, 142.3969°E, 104m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 19° 13° 9° 11° 8° 10° 10° Maximum 43° 32° 30° 28° 27° 29° 31° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)29
(km/h)24
(km/h)24
(km/h)20
(km/h)22
(km/h)24
(km/h)30
(km/h)20
(km/h)26
(km/h)22
(km/h)31
(km/h)18
(km/h)26
(km/h)Wind direction NNE NW SSW SSW S SSW SSW SW SSW SW WSW WSW SW WSW Relative humidity 15% 6% 59% 21% 51% 18% 61% 25% 55% 25% 63% 27% 62% 25% Dew point 0°C -2°C 10°C 6°C 6°C 3°C 9°C 6°C 6°C 5°C 10°C 7°C 10°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Batchica Rain Forecast
Batchica 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
9
10
11
12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Batchica Rain Forecast
Batchica 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020466665665556105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Batchica Rain Forecast
Batchica 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
9
10
11
12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
We're sorry, but there are no daily observations available for Batchica
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Almanac
Almanac
Batchica minimum temp history (36.1878°S, 142.3969°E, 104m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month - Coldest this month - Hottest on record 45.0 31/12/2005 Coldest on record 4.0 08/12/1996 Hottest this year 44.0° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -3.0° 24/08/2019 Long term average 28.7° Long term average 12.2° Average this month - Average this month - Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.6° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.7° 1996 Batchica rainfall history (36.1878°S, 142.3969°E, 104m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month mm Total This Month mm
daysLong Term Average 26.9mm 5.7 days Wettest December on record 123.4mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Batchica Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 392.7mm 106.2 day(s) Total For 2019 272.5mm 103.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 217.9mm 104.0 day(s) Wettest Day 27.0mm Jun12 Lowest Temperature -3.0°C Aug24 Highest Temperature 44.0°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Batchica Climatology
Batchica Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.8 30.6 27.2 22.5 17.9 14.6 14.0 15.6 18.3 22.0 25.8 28.7 22.3 Mean Min (°C) 14.0 14.1 12.1 9.1 6.7 4.6 3.9 4.5 5.9 7.7 10.1 12.2 8.7 Mean Rain (mm) 26.2 21.6 20.3 26.4 39.8 38.0 40.4 42.9 42.4 37.4 30.4 26.9 392.4 Mean Rain Days 4.5 3.7 4.8 6.4 10.8 13.1 15.2 14.5 12.0 8.5 7.0 5.7 103.8