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Forecast

Barongarook (38.4138°S, 143.5836°E, 262m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Increasing sunshine 22°
    increasing sunshine
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:03am EDT 6:31am EDT 7:49pm EDT 8:16pm EDT
    NOW
    8.9° Feels Like:  
    Relative Humidity:  
    Dew: 9.0°
    Wind: E 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Barongarook
    Now
    10.7°c
    Feels Like:
    8.9°
    Wind:
    N 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    80%
    Increasing sunshine
     
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Barongarook
    Areas of morning fog. Sunny afternoon. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Sunny. Light winds and afternoon coastal seabreezes to 15 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 9 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Barongarook

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Areas of morning fog. Sunny afternoon. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

    Forecast for Barongarook (38.4138°S, 143.5836°E, 262m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Increasing sunshine Sunny Sunny Late shower Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 14° 14°
    Maximum 22° 27° 32° 20° 14° 17° 22°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 40% 60% 50% 40% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High High Very High High High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    38
    (km/h)
    41
    (km/h)
    44
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E NE NW WNW NNE N WNW WNW WNW WSW W W NW W
    Relative humidity 99% 68% 89% 55% 68% 52% 90% 72% 92% 81% 95% 78% 99% 72%
    Dew point 10°C 15°C 13°C 18°C 16°C 21°C 13°C 14°C 8°C 11°C 9°C 13°C 12°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Barongarook Rain Forecast


    Barongarook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 3 November to 7 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 October to 23 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 3 November to 7 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Barongarook Rain Forecast


    Barongarook 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    2
    4
    6
    7
    7
    6
    6
    4
    7
    5
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Barongarook Rain Forecast


    Barongarook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Nov 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 3 November to 7 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 October to 23 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 3 November to 7 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Barongarook Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    5.7 °C 12.9 °C
    10.0 mm
    Friday
    Oct 18
    6.1 °C 16.3 °C
    3.4 mm
    Saturday
    Oct 19
    4.5 °C 13.5 °C
    4.6 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 20
    6.5 °C 13.3 °C
    1.2 mm
    Monday
    Oct 21
    8.0 °C 15 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Barongarook minimum temp history (38.4138°S, 143.5836°E, 262m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 24.1° 02/10/2019 Coldest this month 4.2° 01/10/2019
    Hottest on record 34.5 12/10/2006 Coldest on record 0.8 14/10/2005
    Hottest this year 42.2° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.9° 10/08/2019
    Long term average 17.2° Long term average 7.5°
    Average this month 16.2° Average this month 7.4°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.6° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 6.3° 2005
    Barongarook rainfall history (38.4138°S, 143.5836°E, 262m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.0mm 17/10/2019 Total This Month 38.2mm
    11.0 days
    Long Term Average 53.7mm 15.9 days Wettest October on record 105.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Barongarook Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 463.3mm 149.6 day(s)
    Total For 2019 440.8mm 146.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 361.4mm 137.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 25.0mm May10
    Lowest Temperature 0.9°C Aug10
    Highest Temperature 42.2°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Barongarook Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.7 25.3 23.1 19.1 15.1 12.3 11.6 12.7 14.6 17.2 20.5 23.4 18.4
    Mean Min (°C) 12.5 12.9 11.8 10.0 8.0 6.2 5.3 5.6 6.5 7.5 9.5 10.7 8.9
    Mean Rain (mm) 36.4 30.0 30.4 43.2 41.3 53.5 60.0 60.9 53.9 53.7 46.3 36.5 545.8
    Mean Rain Days 7.1 7.1 9.9 14.8 17.4 19.2 20.5 19.2 18.5 15.9 12.2 11.0 162.2