Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds And Heavy Rainfall
for North East and parts of East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland and Northern Country Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:45 pm Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Severe storms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue in the northeast.
Weather Situation
Severe thunderstorms have developed in an unstable airmass ahead of a trough that is moving into the northeast of the state. Thunderstorms are moving to the east and will persist into the early evening.
DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Wodonga, Wangaratta, Corryong, Bright, Falls Creek and Omeo.
Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the North Central district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.
Cancellation for the following areas:
North Central
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next warning is due to be issued by 8:45 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Barmah (36.0235°S, 144.9733°E, 92m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW14° 20° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:59am EDT 7:23am EDT 7:34pm EDT 7:58pm EDT NOW23.9° Feels Like: 24.9° Relative Humidity: 59% Dew: 15.4° Wind: W 4km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 9.4mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
BarmahNow27.0°cFeels Like:22.9°Wind:SW 24km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:39%14°Min20°MaxToday in BarmahSunny. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22.Tomorrow14°Min20°MaxSunny. Winds S 15 to 20 km/h tending SE in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 7 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22.
Forecast for Barmah (36.0235°S, 144.9733°E, 92m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 14° 9° 11° 13° 11° 11° 12° Maximum 20° 23° 26° 25° 23° 25° 25° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 24
(km/h)24
(km/h)12
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)4
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)12
(km/h)14
(km/h)7
(km/h)13
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW SSE ESE E WSW S SSW SSW WSW WSW W SSW SW Relative humidity 57% 28% 62% 30% 69% 34% 68% 33% 76% 30% 74% 34% 70% 34% Dew point 6°C 1°C 5°C 4°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 4°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Barmah Rain Forecast
Barmah 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Barmah Rain Forecast
Barmah 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025555766657699105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Barmah Rain Forecast
Barmah 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Barmah Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1514.5 °C 31.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1616.9 °C 29.1 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1714.9 °C 29.3 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1817.1 °C 31.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1920.6 °C - 1.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Barmah minimum temp history (36.0235°S, 144.9733°E, 92m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 38.5° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 8.9° 03/03/2024 Hottest on record 41.8 07/03/2016 Coldest on record 1.0 08/03/1987 Hottest this year 39.8° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year 8.9° 03/03/2024 Long term average 27.5° Long term average 12.8° Average this month 32.2° Average this month 15.1° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.3° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 9.4° 1987 Barmah rainfall history (36.0235°S, 144.9733°E, 92m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.0mm 19/03/2024 Total This Month 1.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 30.7mm 4.6 days Wettest March on record 241.1mm 1950 Driest on record 0.0mm 2003 -
Year to Date
Barmah Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 84.7mm 12.2 day(s) Total For 2024 129.5mm 11.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 77.5mm 11.0 day(s) Wettest Day 49.5mm Jan 3 Lowest Temperature 8.9°C Mar 3 Highest Temperature 39.8°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Barmah Climatology
Barmah Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 30.8 27.5 22.7 17.8 14.6 13.7 15.5 18.5 22.3 26.1 29.0 22.4 Mean Min (°C) 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.3 6.4 4.3 3.5 4.4 6.0 8.2 11.0 13.2 9.1 Mean Rain (mm) 28.2 25.8 30.7 33.0 39.9 42.8 41.0 42.4 38.2 42.7 33.0 30.0 426.8 Mean Rain Days 4.0 3.6 4.6 5.9 9.0 11.9 12.8 12.0 9.7 8.4 6.0 5.1 93.2