Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Cancellation Of Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 7:25 pm Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Severe thunderstorms have now eased in the northeast.
Weather Situation
Isolated thunderstorms continue in parts of the Northeast and Gippsland, but are no longer likely to be severe.
cancellation of severe thunderstorm warning for the following areas:
East Gippsland, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland
The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Bandiana Milpo (36.1459°S, 146.9066°E, 260m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW15° 23° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:50am EDT 7:15am EDT 7:23pm EDT 7:49pm EDT NOW21.8° Feels Like: 23.7° Relative Humidity: 90% Dew: 20.1° Wind: NW 9km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 8.0mm Pressure: 1012.4hPa -
Today Weather
Bandiana MilpoNow21.1°cFeels Like:22.5°Wind:SW 11km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:92%15°Min23°MaxToday in Bandiana MilpoPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the E in the morning and early afternoon. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h shifting S 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22.Tomorrow15°Min23°MaxSunny. Winds S/SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 24. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the E in the morning and early afternoon. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h shifting S 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 22.
Forecast for Bandiana Milpo (36.1459°S, 146.9066°E, 260m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 15° 8° 10° 11° 11° 10° 10° Maximum 23° 25° 26° 27° 27° 26° 26° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)26
(km/h)8
(km/h)7
(km/h)5
(km/h)7
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)3
(km/h)17
(km/h)3
(km/h)16
(km/h)4
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction WSW SW SE WSW E NNW SE WSW SSW W NNW W S WSW Relative humidity 71% 30% 57% 29% 70% 33% 70% 31% 75% 27% 69% 32% 72% 28% Dew point 11°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 11°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 10°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bandiana Milpo Rain Forecast
Bandiana Milpo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bandiana Milpo Rain Forecast
Bandiana Milpo 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025555754646579105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bandiana Milpo Rain Forecast
Bandiana Milpo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Bandiana Milpo Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1517.5 °C 30.4 °C 0.8 mmSaturday
Mar 1612.7 °C 28.8 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1714.9 °C 29.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1814.0 °C 31.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1917.9 °C 33.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bandiana Milpo minimum temp history (36.1459°S, 146.9066°E, 260m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.6° 07/03/2024 Coldest this month 11.1° 03/03/2024 Hottest on record 38.5 12/03/1998 Coldest on record 4.3 29/03/2008 Hottest this year 39.7° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year 11.0° 27/01/2024 Long term average 27.7° Long term average 13.1° Average this month 32.9° Average this month 16.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.8° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 9.5° 1994 Bandiana Milpo rainfall history (36.1459°S, 146.9066°E, 260m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.8mm 15/03/2024 Total This Month 1.2mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 46.2mm 5.7 days Wettest March on record 255.2mm 2012 Driest on record 0.0mm 1997 -
Year to Date
Bandiana Milpo Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 142.3mm 17.2 day(s) Total For 2024 65.2mm 17.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 220.8mm 17.0 day(s) Wettest Day 11.0mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 11.0°C Jan27 Highest Temperature 39.7°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bandiana Milpo Climatology
Bandiana Milpo Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 32.3 31.0 27.7 22.6 17.5 14.0 13.2 14.9 18.1 22.0 26.1 29.5 22.4 Mean Min (°C) 16.8 16.2 13.1 8.5 5.5 3.7 3.1 3.6 5.6 8.1 11.8 14.1 9.2 Mean Rain (mm) 54.2 41.9 46.2 41.2 49.4 64.3 65.3 67.8 57.8 54.0 67.8 40.1 647.4 Mean Rain Days 6.3 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.6 14.7 16.6 14.1 10.6 8.6 8.2 6.7 112.6