Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy Rainfall
for Northern Country, North Central and parts of Central, Mallee, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:15 pm Thursday, 28 January 2021.
HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
Weather Situation
A deepening low pressure trough will cross Victoria on Friday, and combine with an infeed of tropical moisture from the upper atmosphere which will result in statewide rainfall and thunderstorms on Friday.
HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
Central, Mallee, Northern Country, North Central, North East and Wimmera
HEAVY RAINFALL developing on FRIDAY which may lead to FLASH FLOODING.
Rain will develop in the early hours of Friday in Western Victoria and extend eastwards into the warning area during the morning. Widespread totals of 30 to 60mm are expected in the warning area during the day, with isolated heavier falls of 80 to 90mm possible. The heaviest falls are more likely to be experienced with thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.
Rain will tend to showers and thunderstorms during Friday evening, easing before dawn on Saturday morning.
Locations which may be affected include Bendigo, Shepparton, Swan Hill, Seymour, Maryborough, Wodonga and Wangaratta.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEDT Thursday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Avonmore (36.5299°S, 144.6045°E, 130m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW15° 22° heavy rain Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:06am EDT 6:35am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:05pm EDT NOW19.0° Feels Like: 17.7° Relative Humidity: 87% Dew: 16.8° Wind: NE 18km/h Gust: 28km/h Rainfall since 9am: 4.0mm Pressure: 1014.2hPa -
Today Weather
AvonmoreNow19.3°cFeels Like:17.9°Wind:NE 18km/hGusts:33km/hHumidity:84%15°Min22°MaxToday in AvonmoreHumid. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 16 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.Tomorrow15°Min22°MaxHumid. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the E, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then tending S 20 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 17 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Humid. Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 16 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
Forecast for Avonmore (36.5299°S, 144.6045°E, 130m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 15° 16° 12° 13° 11° 9° 9° Maximum 22° 26° 25° 28° 20° 20° 21° Chance of rain 80% 20% 5% 40% 40% 30% 10% Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)20
(km/h)15
(km/h)19
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)30
(km/h)20
(km/h)19
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NE SW SW S SSE ENE N WSW WSW SW WSW SSE WNW Relative humidity 88% 89% 77% 49% 65% 37% 70% 45% 67% 48% 68% 42% 61% 35% Dew point 15°C 19°C 16°C 14°C 10°C 9°C 14°C 14°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 6°C 6°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Avonmore Rain Forecast
Avonmore 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
21
22
23
LOW24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Avonmore Rain Forecast
Avonmore 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021999558854786105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Avonmore Rain Forecast
Avonmore 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
21
22
23
LOW24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Avonmore Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2416.4 °C 38.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2522.2 °C 40.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2619.6 °C 25.1 °C 5.0 mmWednesday
Jan 279.0 °C 27.2 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Jan 2814.9 °C 23.6 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Avonmore minimum temp history (36.5299°S, 144.6045°E, 130m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 40.0° 25/01/2021 Coldest this month 8.5° 16/01/2021 Hottest on record 43.8 14/01/2014 Coldest on record 3.3 09/01/2004 Hottest this year 40.0° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 8.5° 16/01/2021 Long term average 30.2° Long term average 14.3° Average this month 29.7° Average this month 14.0° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.9° 2009 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 10.7° 2004 Avonmore rainfall history (36.5299°S, 144.6045°E, 130m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 5.0mm 26/01/2021 Total This Month 6.0mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 33.7mm 6.0 days Wettest January on record 177.8mm 2011 Driest on record 0.0mm 2009 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
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- Albany
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- Brisbane Airport
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Year to Date
Avonmore Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 33.7mm 6.0 day(s) Total For 2021 6.0mm 3.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 49.8mm 8.0 day(s) Wettest Day 5.0mm Jan26 Lowest Temperature 8.5°C Jan16 Highest Temperature 40.0°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Avonmore Climatology
Avonmore Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.2 29.6 26.2 21.4 16.6 13.4 12.7 14.2 17.1 21.0 24.8 27.5 21.2 Mean Min (°C) 14.3 14.4 11.8 8.0 5.3 3.5 2.7 2.8 4.5 6.8 9.9 11.9 8.0 Mean Rain (mm) 33.7 30.5 29.2 34.7 46.9 50.3 53.0 51.9 50.2 40.8 45.5 37.7 506.5 Mean Rain Days 6.0 5.3 5.3 7.1 12.8 16.3 18.3 15.7 12.4 9.3 7.9 6.9 123.1