Forecast
Ascot Vale (37.7758°S, 144.9234°E, 33m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 19° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:20am EDT 5:52am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:07pm EDT NOW13.8° Feels Like: 11.8° Relative Humidity: 72% Dew: 8.8° Wind: W 9km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1017.5hPa -
Today Weather
Ascot ValeNow14.2°cFeels Like:12.7°Wind:W 6km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:69%13°Min19°MaxToday in Ascot ValeCloudy. Medium chance of light showers or drizzle in the southeast suburbs, slight chance elsewhere clearing by the afternoon. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h turning S 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.Tomorrow11°Min21°MaxMostly cloudy. Slight chance of light showers in the southeast suburbs in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance elsewhere. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming SW 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ascot Vale
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of light showers or drizzle in the southeast suburbs, slight chance elsewhere clearing by the afternoon. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h turning S 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.
Forecast for Ascot Vale (37.7758°S, 144.9234°E, 33m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 13° 11° 14° 13° 14° 15° 16° Maximum 19° 21° 24° 25° 28° 32° 27° Chance of rain 30% 40% 10% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)16
(km/h)9
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)9
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)6
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction SW SSW WSW SW W SW W WSW SW SSW NE S WSW SW Relative humidity 72% 55% 65% 52% 69% 48% 63% 36% 51% 33% 42% 20% 46% 30% Dew point 11°C 10°C 8°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 7°C 9°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ascot Vale Rain Forecast
Ascot Vale 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
MEDIUM9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ascot Vale Rain Forecast
Ascot Vale 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020556653644567105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ascot Vale Rain Forecast
Ascot Vale 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
MEDIUM9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ascot Vale Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.8 °C 23.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0813.3 °C 29.1 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0914.2 °C 39.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1013.3 °C 18.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1112.9 °C 20 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ascot Vale minimum temp history (37.7758°S, 144.9234°E, 33m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.1° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.8° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 44.0 31/12/2005 Coldest on record 4.0 03/12/1955 Hottest this year 45.2° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.1° 25/06/2019 Long term average 24.5° Long term average 11.9° Average this month 24.1° Average this month 11.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.9° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.1° 1956 Ascot Vale rainfall history (37.7758°S, 144.9234°E, 33m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 4.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 50.7mm 10.1 days Wettest December on record 152.7mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Ascot Vale Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 579.2mm 143.0 day(s) Total For 2019 404.0mm 128.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 406.2mm 115.0 day(s) Wettest Day 23.0mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature 1.1°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 45.2°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ascot Vale Climatology
Ascot Vale Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.5 25.8 24.1 20.1 16.3 13.7 13.1 14.4 16.8 19.3 21.8 24.5 19.7 Mean Min (°C) 13.6 14.0 12.5 10.0 7.9 6.0 5.4 5.7 6.8 8.3 10.0 11.9 9.3 Mean Rain (mm) 42.4 46.2 39.3 57.4 47.5 39.9 43.5 47.1 49.4 58.3 57.5 50.7 578.7 Mean Rain Days 7.4 7.3 9.0 11.5 13.3 14.5 15.7 15.6 14.3 12.7 11.6 10.1 135.5