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Forecast

Ardonachie (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 5° 14°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    7:12am EST 7:41am EST 5:18pm EST 5:47pm EST
    NOW
    12.0° Feels Like: 7.7°
    Relative Humidity: 66%
    Dew: 5.8°
    Wind: SSE 17km/h
    Gust: 19km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Ardonachie
    Now
    10.9°c
    Feels Like:
    6.2°
    Wind:
    SSE 20km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    75%
    Mostly sunny
     
    5°
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Ardonachie
    Areas of morning frost in the north. Areas of morning fog. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching around 13.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    5°
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Areas of frost in the north in the early morning. Areas of morning fog. Slight chance of a shower near the coast, most likely in the evening. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching around 13.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Areas of morning frost in the north. Areas of morning fog. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching around 13.

    Forecast for Ardonachie (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly sunny Possible shower Showers Possible shower Cloudy Mostly sunny Cloudy
    Minimum 5° 5° 8° 7° 5° 4° 6°
    Maximum 14° 15° 14° 13° 13° 15° 14°
    Chance of rain 5% 60% 40% 20% 20% 20% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low - - -
    Frost risk Slight Slight Nil Nil Slight Slight Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		18
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)     		17
    (km/h)     		16
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		9
    (km/h)     		18
    (km/h)     		19
    (km/h)     		21
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N WNW NNW WNW SSE S SSW SSW NNW WNW NNW NNW NNW NW
    Relative humidity 84% 65% 82% 74% 84% 73% 71% 66% 80% 69% 79% 66% 78% 70%
    Dew point 4°C 8°C 5°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 5°C 7°C 4°C 7°C 4°C 8°C 6°C 8°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ardonachie Rain Forecast

    Ardonachie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    4
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    HIGH
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 June to 19 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 3 July to 7 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 June to 15 June, and 24 June to 28 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 26 June to 30 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ardonachie Rain Forecast

    Ardonachie 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    2020
    2021
    6
    6
    7
    6
    7
    7
    7
    8
    6
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued May 13

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month. The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesn’t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ardonachie Rain Forecast

    Ardonachie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    4
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    HIGH
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 June to 19 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 3 July to 7 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 June to 15 June, and 24 June to 28 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 26 June to 30 June.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ardonachie Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    May 30     		7.9 °C 18.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    May 31     		8.3 °C 15.0 °C
    1.4 mm
    Monday
    Jun 01     		8.1 °C 12.2 °C
    8.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 02     		7.9 °C 14.4 °C
    4.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jun 03     		10.4 °C 14.6 °C
    0.6 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Ardonachie minimum temp history (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 14.4° 02/06/2020 Coldest this month 7.9° 02/06/2020
    Hottest on record 23.2 08/06/2005 Coldest on record -1.3 13/06/1996
    Hottest this year 41.3° 30/01/2020 Coldest this year 3.3° 16/05/2020
    Long term average 14.7° Long term average 7.6°
    Average this month 13.2° Average this month 9.3°
    Hottest June On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.7° 2005 Coldest June on record Avg. min. temp. 5.5° 2006
    Ardonachie rainfall history (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 8.4mm 01/06/2020 Total This Month 13.0mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 82.0mm 18.5 days Wettest June on record 152.2mm 2004
    Driest on record 20.8mm 2006

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Ardonachie Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jun 310.2mm 78.7 day(s)
    Total For 2020 219.4mm 64.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 144.0mm 58.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 19.0mm Apr 5
    Lowest Temperature 3.3°C May16
    Highest Temperature 41.3°C Jan30

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ardonachie Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 22.6 22.8 21.6 19.4 16.8 14.7 14.2 15.1 16.6 18.4 19.8 21.3 18.6
    Mean Min (°C) 14.1 14.5 13.0 10.8 9.1 7.6 7.0 7.3 8.3 9.4 11.1 12.5 10.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 34.6 30.6 40.2 52.4 70.4 82.0 93.8 89.7 71.5 55.9 45.6 43.9 712.2
    Mean Rain Days 8.2 7.2 11.6 14.6 18.6 18.5 20.9 20.3 17.6 15.2 11.2 10.0 166.7

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