Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria
Issued at 04:40 PM EDT on Thursday 28 January 2021
for the period until midnight EDT Friday 29 January 2021
Wind Warnings for Thursday 28 January
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip and Central Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Western Port, Gippsland Lakes, West Coast, Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
Wind Warnings for Friday 29 January
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Gippsland Lakes, West Coast, Central Coast, Central Gippsland Coast and East Gippsland Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:10 am EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Ardonachie (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW17° 23° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:10am EDT 6:39am EDT 8:48pm EDT 9:18pm EDT NOW19.1° Feels Like: 16.3° Relative Humidity: 81% Dew: 15.8° Wind: SE 24km/h Gust: 33km/h Rainfall since 9am: Pressure: 1011.6hPa -
Today Weather
ArdonachieNow23.1°cFeels Like:19.5°Wind:E 24km/hGusts:35km/hHumidity:55%17°Min23°MaxToday in ArdonachieHumid. Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 16 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.Tomorrow17°Min23°MaxCloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SW during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 14 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 22. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Humid. Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 16 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
Forecast for Ardonachie (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 17° 16° 15° 13° 14° 13° 13° Maximum 23° 18° 18° 19° 17° 17° 17° Chance of rain 80% 20% 10% 80% 70% 70% 50% Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 21
(km/h)14
(km/h)24
(km/h)25
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)31
(km/h)34
(km/h)26
(km/h)26
(km/h)15
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction NE NW WSW WSW S SSE ENE SW SW SW SW SW W SW Relative humidity 91% 86% 86% 80% 72% 69% 83% 71% 80% 74% 78% 75% 77% 70% Dew point 18°C 20°C 14°C 15°C 11°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 12°C 13°C 11°C 12°C 11°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ardonachie Rain Forecast
Ardonachie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ardonachie Rain Forecast
Ardonachie 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20211088656676766105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ardonachie Rain Forecast
Ardonachie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ardonachie Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2413.4 °C 39.5 °C -Monday
Jan 2519.3 °C 25.8 °C -Tuesday
Jan 2616.0 °C 19.8 °C -Wednesday
Jan 2713.4 °C 19.3 °C -Thursday
Jan 2815.2 °C 22.5 °C -Legend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ardonachie minimum temp history (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.5° 24/01/2021 Coldest this month 10.6° 09/01/2021 Hottest on record 44.3 11/01/2010 Coldest on record 4.6 03/01/2009 Hottest this year 39.5° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year 10.6° 09/01/2021 Long term average 22.7° Long term average 14.1° Average this month 21.8° Average this month 14.0° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.9° 2012 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 11.9° 1994 Ardonachie rainfall history (38.0633°S, 141.9574°E, 75m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 30.2mm 03/01/2021 Total This Month 32.0mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 30.5mm 7.7 days Wettest January on record 121.6mm 2007 Driest on record 2.0mm 2019 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
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- Albany
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- Brisbane Airport
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- Broome
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- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
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- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Ardonachie Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 30.5mm 7.7 day(s) Total For 2021 32.0mm 3.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 7.2mm 3.0 day(s) Wettest Day 30.2mm Jan 3 Lowest Temperature 10.6°C Jan 9 Highest Temperature 39.5°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Ardonachie Climatology
Ardonachie Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.7 22.8 21.6 19.4 16.8 14.7 14.2 15.0 16.6 18.3 19.9 21.4 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 14.1 14.5 13.1 10.9 9.1 7.5 7.0 7.3 8.3 9.5 11.2 12.6 10.4 Mean Rain (mm) 30.5 29.4 37.5 48.6 71.0 77.7 89.6 88.6 69.4 53.0 45.8 42.3 680.9 Mean Rain Days 7.7 7.5 11.4 14.3 19.0 19.1 20.8 20.5 17.4 15.3 11.6 10.5 175.0