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Forecast

Ameys Track (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 15° 19°
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:37am EDT 6:08am EDT 8:41pm EDT 9:12pm EDT
    NOW
    17.3° Feels Like: 12.9°
    Relative Humidity: 78%
    Dew: 13.4°
    Wind: E 28km/h
    Gust: 32km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Ameys Track
    Now
    15.8°c
    Feels Like:
    5.8°
    Wind:
    ENE 54km/h
    Gusts:
    59km/h
    Humidity:
    77%
    Windy
     
    15°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Ameys Track
    Cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges during this afternoon and early evening. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 24.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    16°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Humid. Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. High chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible heavy falls in the afternoon and evening. Winds E/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/NE in the early afternoon then tending NE/SE in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm about the ranges during this afternoon and early evening. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 24.

    Forecast for Ameys Track (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Windy Possible shower Possible thunderstorm Clearing shower Mostly sunny Windy with showers Possible shower
    Minimum 15° 16° 16° 15° 15° 15° 16°
    Maximum 19° 21° 21° 20° 25° 22° 21°
    Chance of rain 60% 70% 70% 40% 90% 80% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 10-20mm < 1mm 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 38
    (km/h)
    38
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    42
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E E E E ESE SE S SW NE NE NW WNW WNW WNW
    Relative humidity 75% 76% 89% 87% 90% 85% 86% 80% 82% 73% 79% 69% 76% 74%
    Dew point 12°C 14°C 17°C 19°C 15°C 18°C 15°C 16°C 17°C 20°C 12°C 15°C 14°C 16°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ameys Track Rain Forecast


    Ameys Track 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ameys Track Rain Forecast


    Ameys Track 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    6
    7
    7
    6
    7
    6
    8
    4
    3
    6
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ameys Track Rain Forecast


    Ameys Track 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ameys Track Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 13
    14.1 °C 22.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 14
    11.8 °C 27.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 15
    18.1 °C 25.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 16
    16.3 °C 18.8 °C
    14.2 mm
    Friday
    Jan 17
    11.2 °C 19 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ameys Track minimum temp history (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 31.0° 09/01/2020 Coldest this month 12.1° 06/01/2020
    Hottest on record 41.4 29/01/2009 Coldest on record 5.6 07/01/1960
    Hottest this year 31.0° 09/01/2020 Coldest this year 12.1° 06/01/2020
    Long term average 20.6° Long term average 14.6°
    Average this month 21.4° Average this month 14.8°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.5° 1960 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 11.7° 1957
    Ameys Track rainfall history (38.8301°S, 146.1742°E, 5m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 21.2mm 11/01/2020 Total This Month 48.6mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 51.8mm 9.9 days Wettest January on record 198.6mm 1960
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Ameys Track Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 51.8mm 9.9 day(s)
    Total For 2020 48.6mm 6.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 0.8mm 3.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 21.2mm Jan11
    Lowest Temperature 12.1°C Jan 6
    Highest Temperature 31.0°C Jan 9
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ameys Track Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 20.6 20.7 19.5 17.4 15.1 13.1 12.3 12.7 14.2 15.9 17.3 18.8 16.5
    Mean Min (°C) 14.6 15.3 14.7 13.1 11.5 9.8 8.7 8.7 9.4 10.4 11.7 13.0 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 51.8 46.8 69.7 83.9 114.0 120.5 123.2 121.9 98.6 92.2 71.2 64.2 1057.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.9 9.1 12.1 14.9 17.8 18.9 19.4 19.6 17.7 16.1 13.4 12.0 178.3