Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:02 AM EDT on Wednesday 11 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Thursday 12 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Thursday 12 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
White Beach (43.1135°S, 147.7491°E, 6m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY8° 21° late shower Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:47am EDT 5:23am EDT 8:41pm EDT 9:16pm EDT NOW20.2° Feels Like: 17.6° Relative Humidity: 51% Dew: 9.7° Wind: NE 13km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
White BeachNow18.6°cFeels Like:15.5°Wind:ESE 15km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:54%8°Min21°MaxToday in White BeachCloudy. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 23.Tomorrow9°Min17°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 18. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 23.
Forecast for White Beach (43.1135°S, 147.7491°E, 6m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 8° 9° 8° 8° 8° 8° 9° Maximum 21° 17° 19° 19° 17° 20° 21° Chance of rain 50% 60% 60% 60% 50% 20% 20% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)9
(km/h)29
(km/h)37
(km/h)21
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)11
(km/h)17
(km/h)18
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction NNW ENE W WSW NW W WSW SW WNW WSW N E W SW Relative humidity 72% 75% 74% 62% 68% 70% 81% 73% 80% 74% 75% 71% 76% 71% Dew point 9°C 17°C 6°C 10°C 8°C 13°C 9°C 14°C 10°C 11°C 9°C 14°C 11°C 15°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
White Beach Rain Forecast
White Beach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
LOW25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
White Beach Rain Forecast
White Beach 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
White Beach Rain Forecast
White Beach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
LOW25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
White Beach Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 079.7 °C 15.6 °C 0.6 mmSunday
Dec 0811.1 °C 19.0 °C 2.4 mmMonday
Dec 0913.3 °C 25.3 °C 0.2 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.7 °C 19 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1111 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
White Beach minimum temp history (43.1135°S, 147.7491°E, 6m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 20.4° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.0° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 31.1 31/12/2009 Coldest on record 3.4 04/12/2011 Hottest this year 32.3° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.1° 20/08/2019 Long term average 16.6° Long term average 10.2° Average this month 13.1° Average this month 7.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.9° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.0° 2006 White Beach rainfall history (43.1135°S, 147.7491°E, 6m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 9.6mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 33.0mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 66.0mm 15.0 days Wettest December on record 96.2mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
White Beach Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 829.7mm 196.8 day(s) Total For 2019 618.6mm 189.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 698.4mm 192.0 day(s) Wettest Day 32.0mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature 2.1°C Aug20 Highest Temperature 32.3°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
White Beach Climatology
White Beach Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 18.0 17.8 17.2 15.1 13.2 11.4 10.9 11.4 12.7 13.6 15.2 16.6 14.5 Mean Min (°C) 11.5 11.8 11.4 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.8 10.2 9.0 Mean Rain (mm) 72.1 47.3 69.8 63.1 84.2 73.0 73.5 75.1 83.5 61.9 60.2 66.0 828.5 Mean Rain Days 13.4 12.6 15.3 17.1 17.8 16.7 17.9 19.7 16.9 18.0 16.4 15.0 178.9