Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Thursday 12 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Friday 13 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Thursday 12 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Wind Warnings for Friday 13 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Thursday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Weymouth (41.0142°S, 147.1502°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY11° 21° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:58am EDT 5:32am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:10pm EDT NOW13.2° Feels Like: 4.4° Relative Humidity: 84% Dew: 10.6° Wind: WNW 46km/h Gust: 48km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.4hPa -
Today Weather
WeymouthNow11.6°cFeels Like:8.9°Wind:WNW 13km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:86%11°Min21°MaxToday in WeymouthPartly cloudy. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures around 20.Tomorrow9°Min19°MaxCloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds W/NW 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 21. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures around 20.
Forecast for Weymouth (41.0142°S, 147.1502°E, 0m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 11° 9° 11° 11° 10° 11° 12° Maximum 21° 19° 21° 20° 21° 23° 24° Chance of rain 20% 10% 50% 50% 5% 30% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 26
(km/h)27
(km/h)23
(km/h)33
(km/h)26
(km/h)30
(km/h)19
(km/h)28
(km/h)8
(km/h)17
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction W W W WNW W WNW WNW WNW N NNW WNW NNW ENE NE Relative humidity 60% 44% 64% 73% 74% 66% 82% 73% 76% 65% 77% 65% 68% 64% Dew point 9°C 8°C 8°C 13°C 12°C 14°C 11°C 14°C 13°C 14°C 13°C 16°C 14°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Weymouth Rain Forecast
Weymouth 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
LOW9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Weymouth Rain Forecast
Weymouth 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020565465657656105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Weymouth Rain Forecast
Weymouth 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
LOW9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Weymouth Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0711.4 °C 18.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0810.0 °C 16.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0912.2 °C 18.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1013.8 °C 17.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1112.9 °C 18 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Weymouth minimum temp history (41.0142°S, 147.1502°E, 0m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 18.0° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 9.3° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 25.7 08/12/2004 Coldest on record 6.5 28/12/2010 Hottest this year 24.6° 30/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.4° 17/09/2019 Long term average 18.9° Long term average 12.8° Average this month 16.3° Average this month 11.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.1° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.3° 2001 Weymouth rainfall history (41.0142°S, 147.1502°E, 0m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.4mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 6.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 43.4mm 9.2 days Wettest December on record 76.6mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Weymouth Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 687.1mm 139.5 day(s) Total For 2019 447.2mm 125.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 585.0mm 126.0 day(s) Wettest Day 23.4mm Jun13 Lowest Temperature 1.4°C Sep17 Highest Temperature 24.6°C Jan30 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Weymouth Climatology
Weymouth Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 20.4 21.1 20.1 17.8 15.4 13.5 12.7 13.1 14.1 15.3 17.4 18.9 16.7 Mean Min (°C) 14.3 14.6 13.4 11.1 9.4 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.5 9.5 11.3 12.8 10.6 Mean Rain (mm) 53.2 25.0 47.8 54.6 66.4 75.0 76.1 83.0 62.1 49.8 50.7 43.4 685.1 Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.5 8.0 10.5 13.1 14.6 17.2 16.4 15.5 12.1 9.2 9.2 128.5