Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Thursday 12 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Friday 13 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Thursday 12 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Wind Warnings for Friday 13 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Thursday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Wattle Grove (43.1669°S, 146.9962°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 17° clearing shower Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:51am EDT 5:26am EDT 8:45pm EDT 9:21pm EDT NOW12.7° Feels Like: 9.3° Relative Humidity: 56% Dew: 4.1° Wind: W 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Wattle GroveNow13.4°cFeels Like:8.7°Wind:W 20km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:63%10°Min17°MaxToday in Wattle GrovePartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the far south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds NW/SW 25 to 40 km/h becoming SW 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then tending W in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 18.Tomorrow8°Min19°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W/NW 35 to 50 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 21. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the far south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds NW/SW 25 to 40 km/h becoming SW 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then tending W in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 18.
Forecast for Wattle Grove (43.1669°S, 146.9962°E, 0m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 10° 8° 11° 9° 8° 11° 9° Maximum 17° 19° 18° 19° 23° 22° 22° Chance of rain 80% 90% 80% 70% 20% 30% 20% Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)22
(km/h)20
(km/h)20
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)4
(km/h)7
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW NW WNW W WSW NW W N WNW WNW WSW E SE Relative humidity 80% 51% 75% 75% 85% 66% 81% 73% 77% 53% 73% 60% 69% 55% Dew point 9°C 7°C 11°C 14°C 11°C 11°C 12°C 14°C 9°C 13°C 12°C 14°C 10°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Wattle Grove Rain Forecast
Wattle Grove 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
LOW25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Wattle Grove Rain Forecast
Wattle Grove 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Wattle Grove Rain Forecast
Wattle Grove 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
LOW25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Wattle Grove Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.0 °C 17.5 °C 6.2 mmSunday
Dec 087.2 °C 18.8 °C 0.6 mmMonday
Dec 099.5 °C 26.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.0 °C 21.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1110.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Wattle Grove minimum temp history (43.1669°S, 146.9962°E, 0m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 26.7° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 3.5° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 37.3 31/12/2009 Coldest on record 1.7 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 40.1° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -1.5° 24/06/2019 Long term average 19.2° Long term average 9.0° Average this month 16.0° Average this month 7.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.6° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 7.4° 1996 Wattle Grove rainfall history (43.1669°S, 146.9962°E, 0m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.0mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 39.8mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 71.3mm 14.0 days Wettest December on record 210.3mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Wattle Grove Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 866.8mm 184.4 day(s) Total For 2019 798.8mm 207.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 793.6mm 196.0 day(s) Wettest Day 32.0mm Aug10 Lowest Temperature -1.5°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 40.1°C Mar 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Wattle Grove Climatology
Wattle Grove Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 20.8 20.7 19.4 16.9 14.7 12.6 12.3 13.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 19.2 16.6 Mean Min (°C) 10.3 10.2 9.1 7.1 5.8 3.9 3.5 3.9 5.1 6.3 7.9 9.0 6.9 Mean Rain (mm) 54.8 49.4 58.7 63.3 71.1 75.5 90.8 95.2 81.1 83.8 71.8 71.3 865.5 Mean Rain Days 11.6 10.6 12.8 14.5 16.6 16.7 19.6 18.2 17.1 17.3 15.4 14.0 177.4