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Forecast

Waratah (41.4444°S, 145.5317°E, 553m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Possible shower 11° 15°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:07am EDT 5:41am EDT 8:48pm EDT 9:22pm EDT
    NOW
    9.3° Feels Like: 7.2°
    Relative Humidity: 94%
    Dew: 8.4°
    Wind: W 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Waratah
    Now
    10.9°c
    Feels Like:
    6.5°
    Wind:
    W 15km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    60%
    Possible shower
     
    11°
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Today in Waratah
    Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 25 to 35 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 15.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    11°
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 21.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 25 to 35 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 15.

    Forecast for Waratah (41.4444°S, 145.5317°E, 553m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Windy Windy Windy Windy
    Minimum 11° 11° 11° 12° 12° 12° 12°
    Maximum 15° 17° 18° 19° 17° 18° 17°
    Chance of rain 80% 5% 20% 10% 5% 20% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    -
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WNW WSW W WSW W E NNE SSW SW ENE NE SW -
    Relative humidity 96% 93% 81% 57% 79% 53% 69% 53% 63% 42% 67% 50% 68% n/a
    Dew point 13°C 13°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 11°C 10°C 8°C 5°C 10°C 8°C 10°C n/a
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Waratah Rain Forecast


    Waratah 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    HIGH
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    HIGH
    Jan 1
    HIGH
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Waratah Rain Forecast


    Waratah 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    8
    6
    6
    4
    5
    6
    6
    5
    7
    7
    7
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Dec 11

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Waratah Rain Forecast


    Waratah 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    HIGH
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    HIGH
    Jan 1
    HIGH
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Waratah Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Dec 10
    7.8 °C 18.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Dec 11
    7.5 °C 19.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Dec 12
    7.4 °C 14.5 °C
    2.4 mm
    Friday
    Dec 13
    6.4 °C 12.4 °C
    2.6 mm
    Saturday
    Dec 14
    8.9 °C 16 °C
    16.8 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Waratah minimum temp history (41.4444°S, 145.5317°E, 553m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.4° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 3.7° 04/12/2019
    Hottest on record 32.9 31/12/2015 Coldest on record 1.9 12/12/1995
    Hottest this year 31.9° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year 0.4° 30/07/2019
    Long term average 18.7° Long term average 8.8°
    Average this month 14.4° Average this month 6.8°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 22.0° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 6.7° 1996
    Waratah rainfall history (41.4444°S, 145.5317°E, 553m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 17.0mm 14/12/2019 Total This Month 85.8mm
    11.0 days
    Long Term Average 93.9mm 18.3 days Wettest December on record 164.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Waratah Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 1591.5mm 246.8 day(s)
    Total For 2019 1441.6mm 263.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 1526.6mm 264.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 47.4mm May 2
    Lowest Temperature 0.4°C Jul30
    Highest Temperature 31.9°C Mar 2
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Waratah Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 20.9 21.2 19.0 15.8 12.9 11.1 10.6 11.3 12.8 14.8 17.3 18.7 15.6
    Mean Min (°C) 10.4 10.8 9.9 8.2 6.9 5.7 5.0 4.9 5.5 6.0 7.7 8.8 7.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 75.2 53.4 84.5 101.3 178.5 164.7 204.6 218.7 176.6 140.6 99.5 93.9 1570.6
    Mean Rain Days 14.0 12.9 17.2 20.8 24.0 22.5 26.0 26.3 24.7 22.0 18.1 18.3 228.6