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Forecast

Tugrah (41.2054°S, 146.3073°E, 46m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 15° 19°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:39am EDT 6:11am EDT 8:42pm EDT 9:13pm EDT
    NOW
    15.8° Feels Like: 14.0°
    Relative Humidity: 80%
    Dew: 12.4°
    Wind: WNW 13km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1011.9hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Tugrah
    Now
    12.9°c
    Feels Like:
    10.2°
    Wind:
    W 13km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    79%
    Mostly sunny
     
    15°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Tugrah
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely this evening. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.
    Tomorrow
    Cloudy
    15°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning. Winds NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Tugrah

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely this evening. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.

    Forecast for Tugrah (41.2054°S, 146.3073°E, 46m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Cloudy Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 15° 15° 12° 12° 13° 14° 13°
    Maximum 19° 21° 19° 21° 23° 22° 27°
    Chance of rain 70% 40% 20% 5% 5% 5% 70%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Very High Very High Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 27
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW NNW NW NW WNW NW WNW WNW W NW NNW NNW E NE
    Relative humidity 76% 84% 81% 67% 67% 73% 68% 64% 66% 68% 75% 69% 69% 65%
    Dew point 14°C 16°C 14°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 14°C 12°C 17°C 13°C 16°C 15°C 20°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tugrah Rain Forecast


    Tugrah 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 26 February to 1 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 February to 6 February, and 10 February to 14 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tugrah Rain Forecast


    Tugrah 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    5
    5
    6
    6
    6
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    4
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tugrah Rain Forecast


    Tugrah 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 26 February to 1 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 February to 6 February, and 10 February to 14 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tugrah Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 20
    15.7 °C 24.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 21
    14.0 °C 20.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 22
    11.8 °C 22.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 23
    13.1 °C 19.0 °C
    23.4 mm
    Friday
    Jan 24
    11.0 °C 21 °C
    4.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Tugrah minimum temp history (41.2054°S, 146.3073°E, 46m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 24.8° 20/01/2020 Coldest this month 7.9° 01/01/2020
    Hottest on record 33.2 09/01/2010 Coldest on record 4.0 27/01/1992
    Hottest this year 24.8° 20/01/2020 Coldest this year 7.9° 01/01/2020
    Long term average 21.4° Long term average 12.3°
    Average this month 21.7° Average this month 12.8°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.7° 2016 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 9.9° 1994
    Tugrah rainfall history (41.2054°S, 146.3073°E, 46m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 23.4mm 23/01/2020 Total This Month 31.8mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 44.0mm 7.1 days Wettest January on record 161.4mm 2016
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Tugrah Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 44.0mm 7.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 31.8mm 3.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 3.4mm 3.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 23.4mm Jan23
    Lowest Temperature 7.9°C Jan 1
    Highest Temperature 24.8°C Jan20
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Tugrah Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.4 21.7 20.4 17.8 15.4 13.5 12.8 13.1 14.3 15.8 17.8 19.7 17.0
    Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.6 10.9 8.7 6.7 5.2 4.7 5.1 6.1 7.3 9.1 10.7 8.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 44.0 35.6 47.2 59.8 76.6 77.7 97.2 91.0 75.1 62.6 57.9 51.3 775.3
    Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.0 7.7 9.4 12.1 12.6 15.3 15.5 13.3 11.3 9.8 8.6 124.0