Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Saturday 07 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Sunday 08 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Central Plateau Lakes, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Derwent Estuary, Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Channel, South West Lakes, Far North West Coast, Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast and Central West Coast
Wind Warnings for Sunday 08 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Lower East Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Saturday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Tarleton (41.2322°S, 146.3806°E, 4m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 20° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:02am EDT 5:35am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:09pm EDT NOW13.3° Feels Like: 5.7° Relative Humidity: 57% Dew: 5.0° Wind: WNW 33km/h Gust: 37km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1007.3hPa -
Today Weather
TarletonNow10.4°cFeels Like:2.6°Wind:WSW 32km/hGusts:44km/hHumidity:59%10°Min20°MaxToday in TarletonPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely this afternoon. Winds W/SW 30 to 45 km/h becoming SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 19.Tomorrow9°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely this afternoon. Winds W/SW 30 to 45 km/h becoming SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 19.
Forecast for Tarleton (41.2322°S, 146.3806°E, 4m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 10° 9° 11° 13° 11° 9° 8° Maximum 20° 20° 22° 23° 21° 20° 19° Chance of rain 20% 10% 30% 10% 10% 20% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 34
(km/h)38
(km/h)9
(km/h)22
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)29
(km/h)11
(km/h)24
(km/h)25
(km/h)33
(km/h)19
(km/h)33
(km/h)Wind direction W W WSW NNW SE NE W WNW N NNW WNW W WSW WNW Relative humidity 62% 52% 66% 63% 75% 72% 66% 42% 70% 61% 66% 47% 56% 51% Dew point 8°C 10°C 10°C 12°C 13°C 16°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 13°C 9°C 9°C 5°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tarleton Rain Forecast
Tarleton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tarleton Rain Forecast
Tarleton 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020565465657656105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tarleton Rain Forecast
Tarleton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
LOW10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tarleton Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 028.2 °C 16.5 °C 2.2 mmTuesday
Dec 038.4 °C 18.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 046.8 °C - 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 05- 20.2 °C -Friday
Dec 0610.6 °C 18 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tarleton minimum temp history (41.2322°S, 146.3806°E, 4m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 20.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 6.8° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 30.9 12/12/1998 Coldest on record 1.6 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 32.2° 20/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.1° 23/08/2019 Long term average 19.7° Long term average 10.7° Average this month 17.6° Average this month 8.7° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.3° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.3° 1996 Tarleton rainfall history (41.2322°S, 146.3806°E, 4m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.8mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 5.0mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 51.3mm 8.6 days Wettest December on record 132.0mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Tarleton Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 776.0mm 128.7 day(s) Total For 2019 423.3mm 118.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 601.4mm 126.0 day(s) Wettest Day 27.5mm Jun30 Lowest Temperature -1.1°C Aug23 Highest Temperature 32.2°C Jan20 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Tarleton Climatology
Tarleton Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.4 21.7 20.4 17.8 15.4 13.5 12.8 13.1 14.3 15.8 17.8 19.7 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.6 10.9 8.7 6.7 5.2 4.7 5.1 6.1 7.3 9.1 10.7 8.3 Mean Rain (mm) 44.0 35.6 47.2 59.8 76.6 77.7 97.2 91.0 75.1 62.6 57.9 51.3 775.3 Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.0 7.7 9.4 12.1 12.6 15.3 15.5 13.3 11.3 9.8 8.6 124.0