Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 07 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 06 December
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Derwent Estuary, Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Channel, Central Plateau Lakes, South West Lakes, Far North West Coast, Upper East Coast and Central West Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Central Plateau Lakes, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Derwent Estuary, Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Channel, South West Lakes, Far North West Coast, Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast and Central West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Otago (42.8007°S, 147.2912°E, 25m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 17° windy with showers Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:51am EDT 5:26am EDT 8:37pm EDT 9:12pm EDT NOW12.3° Feels Like: 3.0° Relative Humidity: 49% Dew: 1.9° Wind: W 39km/h Gust: 72km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 993.5hPa -
Today Weather
OtagoNow11.5°cFeels Like:4.2°Wind:WNW 30km/hGusts:54km/hHumidity:56%10°Min17°MaxToday in OtagoCloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely this evening. Snow falling above 900 metres in the south. Winds W 40 to 60 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 10 and 17.Tomorrow9°Min19°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres early. Winds W/SW 35 to 55 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 18. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely this evening. Snow falling above 900 metres in the south. Winds W 40 to 60 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 10 and 17.
Forecast for Otago (42.8007°S, 147.2912°E, 25m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 10° 9° 10° 11° 15° 9° 10° Maximum 17° 19° 22° 28° 22° 20° 20° Chance of rain 70% 40% 10% 30% 20% 50% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)35
(km/h)24
(km/h)30
(km/h)11
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)16
(km/h)22
(km/h)13
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction W W W WSW WSW SSE N NNE WSW WSW WNW SSW NW W Relative humidity 56% 56% 57% 57% 55% 47% 54% 37% 59% 45% 52% 44% 52% 47% Dew point 6°C 7°C 6°C 11°C 7°C 9°C 10°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 5°C 7°C 5°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Otago Rain Forecast
Otago 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
17
HIGH18
HIGH19
20
HIGH21
HIGH22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
HIGH26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Otago Rain Forecast
Otago 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Otago Rain Forecast
Otago 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
17
HIGH18
HIGH19
20
HIGH21
HIGH22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
HIGH26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Otago Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 018.5 °C 18.4 °C 1.4 mmMonday
Dec 028.5 °C 16.6 °C 0.4 mmTuesday
Dec 037.7 °C 15.8 °C 0.4 mmWednesday
Dec 045.8 °C 18.2 °C 3.4 mmThursday
Dec 0510.5 °C 21 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Otago minimum temp history (42.8007°S, 147.2912°E, 25m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 18.4° 01/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.8° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.6 30/12/1897 Coldest on record 3.3 03/12/1906 Hottest this year 39.1° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -0.2° 25/06/2019 Long term average 20.4° Long term average 10.8° Average this month 17.2° Average this month 8.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.0° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.7° 1904 Otago rainfall history (42.8007°S, 147.2912°E, 25m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.4mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 5.6mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 56.2mm 12.7 days Wettest December on record 206.4mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Otago Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 612.6mm 162.9 day(s) Total For 2019 370.8mm 124.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 536.6mm 143.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.2mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature -0.2°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 39.1°C Mar 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Otago Climatology
Otago Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.7 21.7 20.2 17.4 14.5 12.0 11.8 13.1 15.2 17.0 18.7 20.4 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.0 12.1 10.9 9.0 7.0 5.2 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.8 9.3 10.8 8.3 Mean Rain (mm) 45.7 40.3 45.0 51.6 45.8 53.0 53.0 53.5 53.3 62.1 53.1 56.2 612.5 Mean Rain Days 10.7 9.2 11.4 12.4 14.0 15.1 16.1 15.8 15.2 16.1 14.2 12.7 161.6