Forecast
Orford (42.5526°S, 147.8762°E, 9m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY10° 20° Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:50am EDT 5:25am EDT 8:42pm EDT 9:17pm EDT NOW11.2° Feels Like: 8.9° Relative Humidity: 71% Dew: 6.1° Wind: NE 7km/h Gust: 7km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
OrfordNow11.3°cFeels Like:9.0°Wind:ENE 6km/hGusts:6km/hHumidity:64%10°Min20°MaxToday in OrfordCloudy. High chance of rain, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending W 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20.Tomorrow10°Min20°MaxMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending E/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then tending W/NW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 23. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
There are no current warnings for Orford
-
7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of rain, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending W 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20.
Forecast for Orford (42.5526°S, 147.8762°E, 9m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 10° 10° 11° 13° 14° 10° 16° Maximum 20° 20° 22° 25° 23° 24° 23° Chance of rain 70% 5% 20% 30% 5% 30% 80% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)17
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)5
(km/h)12
(km/h)8
(km/h)13
(km/h)13
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)15
(km/h)11
(km/h)-
(km/h)Wind direction N WNW SW E WSW E NE ENE WSW SSW NNE NNE SW - Relative humidity 84% 67% 67% 59% 67% 65% 80% 64% 62% 53% 64% 49% 62% n/a Dew point 12°C 14°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 14°C 15°C 18°C 11°C 13°C 10°C 12°C 13°C n/a -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Orford Rain Forecast
Orford 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
HIGH16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
4
5
6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Orford Rain Forecast
Orford 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020675665637667105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Orford Rain Forecast
Orford 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
HIGH16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
4
5
6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Orford Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Dec 1011.3 °C 20.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 118.8 °C 18.8 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1210.7 °C 18.5 °C 0.4 mmFriday
Dec 1311.0 °C 21.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 1412.2 °C - 1.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Orford minimum temp history (42.5526°S, 147.8762°E, 9m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 24.6° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.7° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 37.5 20/12/2015 Coldest on record 3.2 07/12/1969 Hottest this year 37.3° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.0° 24/06/2019 Long term average 20.4° Long term average 10.6° Average this month 18.9° Average this month 9.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 22.9° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.6° 1969 Orford rainfall history (42.5526°S, 147.8762°E, 9m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.8mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 12.8mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 62.3mm 11.9 days Wettest December on record 250.7mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
-
Year to Date
Orford Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 665.9mm 145.4 day(s) Total For 2019 479.0mm 123.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 586.4mm 134.0 day(s) Wettest Day 50.0mm Sep 7 Lowest Temperature -1.0°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 37.3°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Orford Climatology
Orford Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.1 21.9 20.6 18.4 15.7 13.3 13.1 14.0 15.8 17.4 18.7 20.4 17.6 Mean Min (°C) 11.9 12.0 10.7 8.4 6.2 4.2 3.6 4.2 5.6 7.2 9.1 10.6 7.8 Mean Rain (mm) 50.9 44.6 45.4 55.5 57.6 55.2 56.6 60.7 52.5 58.4 66.2 62.3 665.5 Mean Rain Days 9.7 8.8 10.2 11.3 12.8 12.8 13.9 13.7 12.9 13.6 13.8 11.9 141.7