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Forecast

Oaks (41.591°S, 146.9707°E, 165m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Late shower 18°
    late shower
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:38am EST 6:05am EST 6:05pm EST 6:33pm EST
    NOW
    5.4° Feels Like: 3.6°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 5.4°
    Wind: NE 4km/h
    Gust: 6km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Oaks
    Now
    6.0°c
    Feels Like:
    2.6°
    Wind:
    S 11km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    88%
    Late shower
     
    Min
    18°
    Max
    Today in Oaks
    Cloudy. Areas of fog early this morning. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending E/NE in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures around 17.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    20°
    Max
    Cloudy. The chance of morning fog. High chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Winds E/SE 15 to 20 km/h shifting N 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 20.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Oaks

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Areas of fog early this morning. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending E/NE in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures around 17.

    Forecast for Oaks (41.591°S, 146.9707°E, 165m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Late shower Showers Showers Showers Showers Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 11°
    Maximum 18° 20° 17° 13° 14° 15° 15°
    Chance of rain 30% 80% 80% 80% 50% 40% 40%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Moderate Nil Nil Nil Nil Slight Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction S N N N N NNW NNW NNW NW W WNW NW SSW SSW
    Relative humidity 79% 75% 82% 78% 89% 69% 84% 80% 83% 63% 71% 52% 71% 53%
    Dew point 7°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 6°C 5°C 4°C 6°C 4°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Oaks Rain Forecast


    Oaks 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    HIGH
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Oct 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    HIGH
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 September to 28 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 October to 22 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 September to 1 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Oaks Rain Forecast


    Oaks 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2020
    2021
    5
    7
    7
    7
    7
    6
    6
    4
    6
    6
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 9

    ENSO status: La Niña Alert IOD status: Negative SAM status: Negative trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to cool through August, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.5. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 9.8 in the same month, a significant increase compared to July, tipping over the La Niña threshold of +7. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific during the Austral spring, with a high chance of a weak La Niña forming. All eight international models continue to suggest further cooling during spring, with three of these indicating La Niña conditions in September. A further two exceeding the La Niña threshold in October, with six of the eight indicating La Niña by November. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 57:41 chance for La Niña:Neutral conditions by the end of the Australspring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase. Four of the six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of the Austral spring, with the remaining two indicating a neutral phase. Both of the models that indicate a neutral phase trend towards the negative side of neutral. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short term outlook favours above average rainfall over the interior over the remainder of the first month of spring, particularly eastern WA and the Kimberley, western NT and western SA Above average rainfall is also favoured, although not as pronounced, over inland NSW and QLD and parts of the NSW and VIC coastal area. Drier than average conditions are expected across western WA as well as parts of northern coastal QLD and parts of the southeast. The remainder of spring is then likely to be wetter than average for NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, TAS, the NT and eastern WA, whilst drier than averageconditions look to persist further west. There are then indications of increased rainfall over WA toward the end of spring and into early summer, with the eastern two thirds of the country remaining wetter than average.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Oaks Rain Forecast


    Oaks 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    HIGH
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Oct 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    HIGH
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 September to 28 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 October to 22 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 September to 1 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Oaks Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Sep 14
    6.2 °C 15.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 15
    6.1 °C 16.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Sep 16
    6.2 °C 15.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Sep 17
    5.6 °C 13.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Sep 18
    0.7 °C 15.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Oaks minimum temp history (41.591°S, 146.9707°E, 165m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 17.5° 08/09/2020 Coldest this month -2.8° 01/09/2020
    Hottest on record 22.0 30/09/2001 Coldest on record -4.4 03/09/2008
    Hottest this year 36.1° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -4.0° 07/06/2020
    Long term average 14.9° Long term average 4.1°
    Average this month 14.8° Average this month 4.4°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.9° 2001 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 2.4° 2003
    Oaks rainfall history (41.591°S, 146.9707°E, 165m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 2.4mm 04/09/2020 Total This Month 9.6mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 63.7mm 14.0 days Wettest September on record 106.4mm 2002
    Driest on record 23.8mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Oaks Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 458.8mm 107.7 day(s)
    Total For 2020 419.6mm 97.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 367.8mm 89.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 48.2mm Mar 6
    Lowest Temperature -4.0°C Jun 7
    Highest Temperature 36.1°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Oaks Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.2 25.1 22.7 18.3 14.8 12.3 11.9 12.9 14.9 17.2 20.3 22.8 18.1
    Mean Min (°C) 10.3 10.5 8.4 5.5 3.5 1.8 1.7 2.5 4.1 5.1 7.3 8.5 5.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 38.5 24.3 42.0 42.4 50.4 63.6 64.6 69.3 63.7 50.8 54.6 43.6 607.6
    Mean Rain Days 6.4 6.7 7.4 9.3 14.2 15.4 17.4 16.9 14.0 11.2 9.4 9.2 131.5