Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:01 PM EDT on Monday 09 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Tuesday 10 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Monday 09 December
Cancellation for the following areas:
Storm Bay, Lower East Coast and South East Coast
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 10 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Lower East Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Lune River (43.4311°S, 146.9035°E, 5m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW9° 16° clearing shower Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:50am EDT 5:25am EDT 8:44pm EDT 9:19pm EDT NOW12.4° Feels Like: 7.8° Relative Humidity: 86% Dew: 10.1° Wind: SW 24km/h Gust: 28km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1010.8hPa -
Today Weather
Lune RiverNow17.3°cFeels Like:14.3°Wind:SW 15km/hGusts:19km/hHumidity:61%9°Min16°MaxToday in Lune RiverPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south in the early morning. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h before dawn then tending W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.Tomorrow9°Min16°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south in the early morning. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h before dawn then tending W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 21.
Forecast for Lune River (43.4311°S, 146.9035°E, 5m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 9° 9° 10° 8° 9° 8° 8° Maximum 16° 17° 14° 17° 16° 14° 16° Chance of rain 5% 50% 50% 60% 90% 70% 40% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)19
(km/h)7
(km/h)9
(km/h)19
(km/h)27
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)15
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)14
(km/h)-
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW NNW SSW WNW WSW WNW WNW NW W W WSW WNW - Relative humidity 69% 56% 66% 65% 71% 60% 67% 61% 77% 72% 67% 67% 69% n/a Dew point 4°C 7°C 8°C 10°C 7°C 7°C 6°C 9°C 9°C 10°C 6°C 8°C 6°C n/a -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lune River Rain Forecast
Lune River 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
MEDIUM18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
HIGH31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
MEDIUM6
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lune River Rain Forecast
Lune River 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lune River Rain Forecast
Lune River 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
MEDIUM18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
HIGH31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
5
MEDIUM6
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Lune River Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 056.0 °C 17.5 °C 1.0 mmFriday
Dec 067.0 °C 12.1 °C 6.8 mmSaturday
Dec 078.0 °C 17.5 °C 6.2 mmSunday
Dec 087.2 °C 18.8 °C 0.6 mmMonday
Dec 099.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lune River minimum temp history (43.4311°S, 146.9035°E, 5m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 17.5° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 3.5° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 37.3 31/12/2009 Coldest on record 1.7 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 40.1° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -1.5° 24/06/2019 Long term average 19.2° Long term average 9.0° Average this month 14.0° Average this month 6.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.6° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 7.4° 1996 Lune River rainfall history (43.4311°S, 146.9035°E, 5m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.0mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 39.8mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 71.3mm 14.0 days Wettest December on record 210.3mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Lune River Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 866.8mm 184.4 day(s) Total For 2019 798.8mm 207.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 793.6mm 196.0 day(s) Wettest Day 32.0mm Aug10 Lowest Temperature -1.5°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 40.1°C Mar 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Lune River Climatology
Lune River Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 20.8 20.7 19.4 16.9 14.7 12.6 12.3 13.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 19.2 16.6 Mean Min (°C) 10.3 10.2 9.1 7.1 5.8 3.9 3.5 3.9 5.1 6.3 7.9 9.0 6.9 Mean Rain (mm) 54.8 49.4 58.7 63.3 71.1 75.5 90.8 95.2 81.1 83.8 71.8 71.3 865.5 Mean Rain Days 11.6 10.6 12.8 14.5 16.6 16.7 19.6 18.2 17.1 17.3 15.4 14.0 177.4