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Forecast

Lower Wilmot (41.3091°S, 146.2172°E, 291m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers increasing 11°
    showers increasing
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    7:10am EST 7:42am EST 4:56pm EST 5:27pm EST
    NOW
    8.6° Feels Like: 3.3°
    Relative Humidity: 81%
    Dew: 5.5°
    Wind: WNW 22km/h
    Gust: 32km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Lower Wilmot
    Now
    11.7°c
    Feels Like:
    4.6°
    Wind:
    WNW 35km/h
    Gusts:
    41km/h
    Humidity:
    84%
    Showers increasing
     
    Min
    11°
    Max
    Today in Lower Wilmot
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely this morning. Snow falling above 1000 metres from this afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h early in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 8 and 13.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 700 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far west in the afternoon. Possible hail. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h turning SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 11.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Lower Wilmot

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely this morning. Snow falling above 1000 metres from this afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h early in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 8 and 13.

    Forecast for Lower Wilmot (41.3091°S, 146.2172°E, 291m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Showers increasing Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Frost then sunny Frost then sunny
    Minimum -1°
    Maximum 11° 12° 12° 12° 10° 10°
    Chance of rain 60% 30% 30% 10% 10% 20% 80%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Nil Moderate Moderate Slight Moderate High High
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 13
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW NW W WSW WNW WSW WSW WSW W WSW SSW NNE S NNE
    Relative humidity 84% 79% 86% 64% 92% 71% 87% 65% 89% 69% 82% 61% 84% 72%
    Dew point 5°C 6°C 3°C 2°C 3°C 6°C 4°C 5°C 4°C 6°C 0°C 1°C 1°C 4°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Lower Wilmot Rain Forecast


    Lower Wilmot 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 28 July to 1 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Lower Wilmot Rain Forecast


    Lower Wilmot 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2020
    2021
    5
    4
    5
    5
    5
    6
    7
    4
    8
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Lower Wilmot Rain Forecast


    Lower Wilmot 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 28 July to 1 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Lower Wilmot Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Jun 28
    -0.3 °C 10.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jun 29
    0.9 °C 11.1 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 30
    5.2 °C 11.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 01
    6.6 °C 12.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 02
    6.7 °C 10.1 °C
    23.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Lower Wilmot minimum temp history (41.3091°S, 146.2172°E, 291m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 12.1° 01/07/2020 Coldest this month 6.6° 01/07/2020
    Hottest on record 16.0 03/07/1999 Coldest on record -3.0 25/07/2002
    Hottest this year 31.6° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -1.5° 07/06/2020
    Long term average 10.9° Long term average 3.4°
    Average this month 10.8° Average this month 6.6°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 11.8° 2001 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 2.5° 2007
    Lower Wilmot rainfall history (41.3091°S, 146.2172°E, 291m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 23.0mm 02/07/2020 Total This Month 23.0mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 130.7mm 17.8 days Wettest July on record 250.8mm 2016
    Driest on record 44.4mm 2001
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Lower Wilmot Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 577.4mm 86.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 535.0mm 76.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 408.4mm 67.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 46.2mm Mar 6
    Lowest Temperature -1.5°C Jun 7
    Highest Temperature 31.6°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Lower Wilmot Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 22.0 21.9 20.0 16.5 13.6 11.7 10.9 11.6 13.3 15.2 17.9 19.7 16.2
    Mean Min (°C) 10.6 10.9 9.4 7.1 5.4 4.0 3.4 3.8 4.7 5.7 7.6 9.0 6.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 61.7 42.2 59.0 63.0 101.5 119.3 130.7 130.4 130.5 88.0 84.9 68.1 1072.2
    Mean Rain Days 8.8 8.4 9.0 10.9 15.2 16.0 17.8 17.6 17.2 13.1 11.2 10.0 149.7