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Forecast

Longley (42.9717°S, 147.1951°E, 177m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy with showers 14°
    windy with showers
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:46am EDT 6:15am EDT 7:39pm EDT 8:08pm EDT
    NOW
    5.2° Feels Like: 1.0°
    Relative Humidity: 81%
    Dew: 2.2°
    Wind: WNW 13km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 2.4mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Longley
    Now
    7.4°c
    Feels Like:
    0.5°
    Wind:
    NW 26km/h
    Gusts:
    37km/h
    Humidity:
    66%
    Windy with showers
     
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Longley
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 600 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds W/NW 35 to 50 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.
    Tomorrow
    Windy with showers
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of showers in the far south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W 40 to 60 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 17.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 600 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds W/NW 35 to 50 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.

    Forecast for Longley (42.9717°S, 147.1951°E, 177m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Windy with showers Windy Sunny Sunny Late shower Mostly cloudy Late shower
    Minimum 10° 13°
    Maximum 14° 17° 21° 21° 25° 26° 18°
    Chance of rain 50% 20% 5% 20% 60% 30% 80%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate High High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 21
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WNW W W W W WNW WSW NW WNW NNW WNW WNW W
    Relative humidity 68% 61% 76% 73% 69% 51% 69% 49% 53% 45% 61% 53% 69% 64%
    Dew point 5°C 7°C 10°C 12°C 9°C 10°C 7°C 10°C 8°C 13°C 14°C 14°C 10°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Longley Rain Forecast


    Longley 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    HIGH
    12
    HIGH
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Longley Rain Forecast


    Longley 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    4
    5
    7
    6
    7
    7
    7
    4
    8
    4
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Longley Rain Forecast


    Longley 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    HIGH
    12
    HIGH
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Longley Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Oct 14
    0.9 °C 23.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    6.4 °C 13.9 °C
    0.8 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    -0.8 °C -
    1.4 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    - 17.1 °C
    -
    Friday
    Oct 18
    3.1 °C 18 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Longley minimum temp history (42.9717°S, 147.1951°E, 177m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.0° 03/10/2019 Coldest this month -1.1° 01/10/2019
    Hottest on record 31.6 12/10/2006 Coldest on record -2.8 26/10/2006
    Hottest this year 38.3° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -5.2° 25/06/2019
    Long term average 17.3° Long term average 5.5°
    Average this month 16.7° Average this month 3.4°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.8° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 4.5° 2011
    Longley rainfall history (42.9717°S, 147.1951°E, 177m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.4mm 11/10/2019 Total This Month 11.6mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 64.6mm 17.1 days Wettest October on record 118.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Longley Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 619.3mm 154.6 day(s)
    Total For 2019 420.6mm 110.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 590.4mm 119.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 23.8mm Feb 7
    Lowest Temperature -5.2°C Jun25
    Highest Temperature 38.3°C Mar 2
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Longley Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 23.2 22.7 21.3 17.9 14.9 12.5 12.2 13.4 15.5 17.3 19.1 21.1 17.6
    Mean Min (°C) 9.8 9.2 8.1 5.7 4.3 2.0 1.9 2.8 4.4 5.5 7.3 8.4 5.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 47.9 51.0 40.4 44.4 62.1 68.9 71.7 85.6 82.7 64.6 62.1 64.9 746.0
    Mean Rain Days 10.4 10.5 11.8 14.5 16.7 17.5 20.5 18.9 16.7 17.1 15.0 13.9 170.5