Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:11 AM EDT on Friday 13 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 14 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 13 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, South East Coast and South West Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 14 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound and East of Flinders Island
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Lauderdale (42.9112°S, 147.4925°E, 3m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY9° 21° possible shower Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:50am EDT 5:25am EDT 8:43pm EDT 9:18pm EDT NOW19.3° Feels Like: 12.4° Relative Humidity: 40% Dew: 5.5° Wind: WNW 30km/h Gust: 43km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1006.0hPa -
Today Weather
LauderdaleNow17.0°cFeels Like:11.9°Wind:NW 24km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:56%9°Min21°MaxToday in LauderdaleCloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h tending W in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 20.Tomorrow12°Min19°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 40 km/h before dawn then tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 19. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h tending W in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 20.
Forecast for Lauderdale (42.9112°S, 147.4925°E, 3m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 9° 12° 11° 10° 13° 12° 12° Maximum 21° 19° 20° 23° 24° 24° 26° Chance of rain 50% 70% 80% 5% 30% 10% 20% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)29
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)18
(km/h)23
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)24
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction NW W SW SW N WNW WSW SE W S NE ESE SW S Relative humidity 49% 48% 64% 51% 66% 59% 54% 40% 50% 46% 57% 47% 52% 43% Dew point 4°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 12°C 7°C 8°C 9°C 11°C 9°C 12°C 9°C 12°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lauderdale Rain Forecast
Lauderdale 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
HIGH16
17
LOW18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
MEDIUM27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
MEDIUM8
9
10
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lauderdale Rain Forecast
Lauderdale 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lauderdale Rain Forecast
Lauderdale 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
HIGH16
17
LOW18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
MEDIUM27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
MEDIUM8
9
10
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Lauderdale Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0911.4 °C 30.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1012.0 °C 18.3 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 119.3 °C 22.6 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1211.5 °C 19.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 1311.0 °C - 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lauderdale minimum temp history (42.9112°S, 147.4925°E, 3m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.7° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 6.0° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 39.2 11/12/1998 Coldest on record 2.7 01/12/1960 Hottest this year 40.1° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.3° 24/06/2019 Long term average 20.7° Long term average 10.8° Average this month 19.3° Average this month 9.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.3° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.3° 1996 Lauderdale rainfall history (42.9112°S, 147.4925°E, 3m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 9.0mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 51.9mm 11.9 days Wettest December on record 169.8mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Lauderdale Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 496.0mm 144.1 day(s) Total For 2019 317.4mm 139.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 390.6mm 132.0 day(s) Wettest Day 21.4mm Aug10 Lowest Temperature 0.3°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 40.1°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Lauderdale Climatology
Lauderdale Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.6 22.3 20.8 18.2 15.3 13.0 12.5 13.5 15.4 17.3 19.0 20.7 17.5 Mean Min (°C) 12.1 12.1 10.8 8.8 6.6 4.7 4.1 4.7 6.1 7.6 9.2 10.8 8.1 Mean Rain (mm) 40.9 35.3 35.6 40.4 36.3 33.6 43.2 46.5 41.6 46.0 44.7 51.9 495.9 Mean Rain Days 9.4 8.2 10.1 10.8 12.1 12.6 14.1 14.3 13.9 13.8 12.9 11.9 141.5