Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Thursday 12 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Friday 13 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Thursday 12 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Wind Warnings for Friday 13 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Thursday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Lapoinya (41.009°S, 145.5784°E, 109m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 19° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:05am EDT 5:39am EDT 8:43pm EDT 9:16pm EDT NOW11.1° Feels Like: 5.4° Relative Humidity: 78% Dew: 7.4° Wind: W 26km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1012.5hPa -
Today Weather
LapoinyaNow7.4°cFeels Like:2.5°Wind:SW 22km/hGusts:28km/hHumidity:99%10°Min19°MaxToday in LapoinyaPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the west this morning. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 14 and 19.Tomorrow8°Min18°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the west, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 19. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the west this morning. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 14 and 19.
Forecast for Lapoinya (41.009°S, 145.5784°E, 109m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 10° 8° 11° 10° 9° 10° 12° Maximum 19° 18° 20° 20° 23° 25° 24° Chance of rain 10% 20% 40% 60% 10% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)24
(km/h)21
(km/h)26
(km/h)22
(km/h)24
(km/h)18
(km/h)23
(km/h)10
(km/h)17
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)11
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW W W W W W WNW W NNW NW NNW E ENE Relative humidity 71% 48% 78% 78% 82% 69% 84% 69% 77% 66% 76% 63% 71% 72% Dew point 8°C 8°C 9°C 14°C 13°C 14°C 11°C 14°C 11°C 15°C 13°C 18°C 15°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lapoinya Rain Forecast
Lapoinya 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
MEDIUM22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lapoinya Rain Forecast
Lapoinya 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020565465657656105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lapoinya Rain Forecast
Lapoinya 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
MEDIUM22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Lapoinya Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 079.5 °C 18.8 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Dec 085.5 °C 19.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0912.3 °C 17.6 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.3 °C 22.9 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1113.1 °C 20 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lapoinya minimum temp history (41.009°S, 145.5784°E, 109m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 23.0° 10/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.5° 08/12/2019 Hottest on record 30.5 12/12/1998 Coldest on record 0.0 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 33.1° 22/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.9° 24/06/2019 Long term average 19.7° Long term average 9.6° Average this month 17.7° Average this month 9.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.7° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 6.6° 1964 Lapoinya rainfall history (41.009°S, 145.5784°E, 109m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 4.0mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 12.2mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 65.3mm 12.1 days Wettest December on record 164.2mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Lapoinya Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1011.0mm 182.7 day(s) Total For 2019 719.0mm 174.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 792.2mm 176.0 day(s) Wettest Day 25.4mm Jun30 Lowest Temperature -2.9°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 33.1°C Jan22 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Lapoinya Climatology
Lapoinya Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.5 21.7 20.2 17.6 15.2 13.5 12.7 13.2 14.5 16.2 18.0 19.7 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 11.1 11.5 9.6 7.1 5.3 4.2 3.5 4.0 5.0 6.1 8.1 9.6 7.1 Mean Rain (mm) 44.4 46.9 48.7 71.9 101.1 109.8 134.1 118.4 98.2 97.0 75.2 65.3 1011.8 Mean Rain Days 9.0 8.8 11.1 13.5 17.7 18.7 21.7 21.4 18.2 16.9 13.6 12.1 175.4