Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in King Island, Furneaux Islands, Western, Upper Derwent Valley, South East, North West Coast, Central Plateau and parts of East Coast, Central North and Midlands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:51 pm Wednesday, 21 August 2019.
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
Weather Situation:
Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will increase during Wednesday evening as a cold front crosses Tasmania.
DAMAGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS are possible in western, southern and central areas, as well as over the Bass Strait islands and lower east coast. DAMAGING WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts near 100 km/h are possible, although exposed coastal locations and elevated areas above 400 metres may experience gusts over 110 km/h.
Winds are expected to ease during Thursday morning.
Locations which may be affected include Burnie, Swansea, Strahan, New Norfolk, Hobart and Dover.
Maximum wind gust observations over the past 6 hours include: 131 km/h Mount Read, 119 km/h Cape Grim, 104 km/h Cape Sorell, 94 km/h Low Rocky Point.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Supervise children closely.
* Check that family and neighbours are aware of warnings.
* Manage pets and livestock.
* Secure outdoor items including furniture and play equipment.
* Be prepared in case of power outages and report any outages to TasNetworks on 132 004.
* Beware of damaged trees and power lines and take care when driving.
* Listen to the ABC radio or check www.ses.tas.gov.au for further advice.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Thursday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Lake Leake (42.0128°S, 147.8008°E, 624m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY
4° 12° wind and showers easing Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:23am EST 6:51am EST 5:33pm EST 6:01pm EST NOW5.7° Feels Like: 0.8° Relative Humidity: 66% Dew: -0.1° Wind: SW 15km/h Gust: SW 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Lake LeakeNow1.9°cFeels Like:-5.8°Wind:SSW 30km/hGusts:33km/hHumidity:95%
4°Min12°MaxToday in Lake LeakePartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 400 metres early. Possible hail in the morning. Winds SW 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then turning W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 2 and 3 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 12.Tomorrow
1°Min16°MaxMostly sunny. Patches of morning frost. Slight chance of a shower about higher ground at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/NW and light increasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming NW 25 to 40 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 5 and 1 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 16. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
-
7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 400 metres early. Possible hail in the morning. Winds SW 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then turning W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 2 and 3 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 12.
Forecast for Lake Leake (42.0128°S, 147.8008°E, 624m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 4° 1° 9° 4° 5° 5° 7° Maximum 12° 16° 17° 14° 16° 17° 16° Chance of rain 40% 10% 50% 30% 10% 5% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Low Low - - - - - Frost risk Slight Moderate Nil Slight Slight Slight Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)22
(km/h)14
(km/h)23
(km/h)29
(km/h)21
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW NW NW WNW W WSW WSW WNW W NW WNW WNW W Relative humidity 68% 56% 70% 70% 85% 74% 80% 64% 77% 62% 79% 64% 78% 69% Dew point 2°C 4°C 4°C 11°C 12°C 11°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 7°C 10°C 8°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lake Leake Rain Forecast
Lake Leake 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
HIGH23
24
HIGH25
26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
31
LOWSep 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug21Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 3 September to 7 September, and 17 September to 21 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, 6 September to 10 September, and 11 September to 15 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 17 September to 21 September.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lake Leake Rain Forecast
Lake Leake 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20192020665568651573105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SST's) continued a cooling trend over the central Pacific during July. The Nino3.4 index lingered at about 0.5 through the month of July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 in July, which is now in neutral territory. Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the remainder of 2019, none of these are reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 50% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. Six out of six international models maintain a positive event until mid-spring. The climate outlook for the four weeks left in winter and spring, favours average-to-below average rainfall across the southern half of Australia, in particular over the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and the first half of spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. SST's along the eastern seaboard remain significantly warmer than average (especially off NSW) maintaining a high risk of extreme weather events such as East Coast Lows (ECLs). These can bring intense periods of rainfall east of the Great Dividing Range, leading to flash flooding.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Lake Leake Rain Forecast
Lake Leake 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
HIGH23
24
HIGH25
26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
31
LOWSep 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug21Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 3 September to 7 September, and 17 September to 21 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, 6 September to 10 September, and 11 September to 15 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 17 September to 21 September.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Lake Leake Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Aug 17-1.1 °C 11.8 °C 3.8 mmSunday
Aug 180.2 °C 15.3 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Aug 194.3 °C 10.2 °C 5.8 mmTuesday
Aug 205.7 °C 16.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Aug 214.2 °C - 4.8 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lake Leake minimum temp history (42.0128°S, 147.8008°E, 624m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 16.6° 20/08/2019 Coldest this month -3.8° 05/08/2019 Hottest on record 19.6 26/08/2004 Coldest on record -6.3 07/08/2006 Hottest this year 36.2° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year -6.7° 24/06/2019 Long term average 12.5° Long term average 2.3° Average this month 12.0° Average this month 0.4° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 13.6° 2014 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 0.8° 2008 Lake Leake rainfall history (42.0128°S, 147.8008°E, 624m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 5.8mm 19/08/2019 Total This Month 21.4mm
12.0 daysLong Term Average 46.4mm 17.2 days Wettest August on record 125.6mm 2014 -
Popup - Radar
-
Year to Date
Lake Leake Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 314.1mm 101.4 day(s) Total For 2019 237.0mm 90.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 350.6mm 96.0 day(s) Wettest Day 14.6mm Jun13 Lowest Temperature -6.7°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 36.2°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Lake Leake Climatology
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.5 24.2 21.9 17.6 14.3 11.7 11.3 12.5 14.6 17.1 19.9 22.7 17.7 Mean Min (°C) 10.6 10.6 8.2 5.6 3.3 1.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 4.9 7.0 8.7 5.7 Mean Rain (mm) 45.7 36.9 35.1 34.9 33.0 41.6 40.5 46.4 52.9 43.7 47.2 37.9 495.0 Mean Rain Days 7.6 7.9 8.4 11.2 13.7 17.6 17.8 17.2 15.3 13.3 11.5 9.3 142.1
