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Forecast

Ilfraville (41.1522°S, 146.8018°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Cloudy 12° 21°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:00am EDT 5:34am EDT 8:38pm EDT 9:11pm EDT
    NOW
    16.8° Feels Like: 14.3°
    Relative Humidity: 71%
    Dew: 11.5°
    Wind: NW 15km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1017.8hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Ilfraville
    Now
    16.5°c
    Feels Like:
    13.2°
    Wind:
    NNW 20km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    74%
    Cloudy
     
    12°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Ilfraville
    Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 22.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    11°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h in the late morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching around 20.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 22.

    Forecast for Ilfraville (41.1522°S, 146.8018°E, 16m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Windy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 12° 11° 13° 11° 11°
    Maximum 21° 21° 19° 21° 21° 21° 24°
    Chance of rain 5% 10% 5% 30% 40% 10% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    39
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE NNW W W WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW NNW NNW NW NNW
    Relative humidity 80% 78% 72% 56% 78% 81% 84% 74% 84% 79% 79% 73% 83% 71%
    Dew point 11°C 17°C 9°C 12°C 9°C 16°C 14°C 16°C 11°C 17°C 11°C 16°C 13°C 19°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ilfraville Rain Forecast


    Ilfraville 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec11

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ilfraville Rain Forecast


    Ilfraville 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    5
    6
    5
    4
    6
    5
    6
    5
    7
    6
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ilfraville Rain Forecast


    Ilfraville 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec11

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ilfraville Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Dec 07
    11.4 °C 18.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Dec 08
    10.0 °C 16.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Dec 09
    12.2 °C 18.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Dec 10
    13.8 °C 17.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Dec 11
    12.9 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ilfraville minimum temp history (41.1522°S, 146.8018°E, 16m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 18.0° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 9.3° 04/12/2019
    Hottest on record 25.7 08/12/2004 Coldest on record 6.5 28/12/2010
    Hottest this year 24.6° 30/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.4° 17/09/2019
    Long term average 18.9° Long term average 12.8°
    Average this month 16.3° Average this month 11.1°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.1° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.3° 2001
    Ilfraville rainfall history (41.1522°S, 146.8018°E, 16m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.4mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 6.4mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 43.4mm 9.2 days Wettest December on record 76.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Ilfraville Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 687.1mm 139.5 day(s)
    Total For 2019 447.2mm 125.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 585.0mm 126.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 23.4mm Jun13
    Lowest Temperature 1.4°C Sep17
    Highest Temperature 24.6°C Jan30
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Ilfraville Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 20.4 21.1 20.1 17.8 15.4 13.5 12.7 13.1 14.1 15.3 17.4 18.9 16.7
    Mean Min (°C) 14.3 14.6 13.4 11.1 9.4 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.5 9.5 11.3 12.8 10.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 53.2 25.0 47.8 54.6 66.4 75.0 76.1 83.0 62.1 49.8 50.7 43.4 685.1
    Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.5 8.0 10.5 13.1 14.6 17.2 16.4 15.5 12.1 9.2 9.2 128.5