Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:02 AM EDT on Wednesday 11 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Thursday 12 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Thursday 12 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Exeter (41.3002°S, 146.9534°E, 65m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 22° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:58am EDT 5:31am EDT 8:38pm EDT 9:11pm EDT NOW19.0° Feels Like: 16.3° Relative Humidity: 58% Dew: 10.5° Wind: NW 15km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
ExeterNow17.1°cFeels Like:14.6°Wind:NW 15km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:69%12°Min22°MaxToday in ExeterCloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 22.Tomorrow11°Min22°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h in the late morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching around 20. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 22.
Forecast for Exeter (41.3002°S, 146.9534°E, 65m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 11° 10° 11° 11° 9° 11° Maximum 22° 22° 21° 22° 22° 24° 30° Chance of rain 20% 40% 10% 30% 40% 10% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Extreme Extreme Very High - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)15
(km/h)20
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)8
(km/h)18
(km/h)10
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction NNW NNW WNW WSW NW WNW WNW WNW NW NW NW NNW NW NW Relative humidity 67% 55% 57% 31% 63% 56% 68% 46% 71% 53% 64% 46% 65% 40% Dew point 10°C 13°C 7°C 4°C 8°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 12°C 9°C 12°C 12°C 14°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Exeter Rain Forecast
Exeter 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Exeter Rain Forecast
Exeter 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020565465657656105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Exeter Rain Forecast
Exeter 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
LOW19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Exeter Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.3 °C 22.8 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 085.4 °C 24.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0913.3 °C 23.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.9 °C 23.4 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1112.8 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Exeter minimum temp history (41.3002°S, 146.9534°E, 65m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 24.0° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.4° 08/12/2019 Hottest on record 33.8 06/12/1994 Coldest on record 2.0 12/12/1995 Hottest this year 33.5° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -3.2° 24/06/2019 Long term average 22.5° Long term average 10.8° Average this month 20.5° Average this month 9.4° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.3° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.4° 1996 Exeter rainfall history (41.3002°S, 146.9534°E, 65m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.8mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 1.4mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 46.7mm 8.6 days Wettest December on record 145.1mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Exeter Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 680.5mm 128.9 day(s) Total For 2019 479.4mm 116.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 587.0mm 133.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.4mm Feb12 Lowest Temperature -3.2°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 33.5°C Mar 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Exeter Climatology
Exeter Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.5 24.6 22.8 19.1 15.8 13.2 12.7 13.8 15.7 18.0 20.5 22.5 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.3 10.4 7.7 5.2 2.9 2.4 3.6 5.3 6.9 9.1 10.8 7.4 Mean Rain (mm) 46.4 30.3 38.9 51.0 65.2 68.7 77.9 86.3 66.6 50.0 52.5 46.7 680.7 Mean Rain Days 7.0 6.0 6.5 9.1 12.0 13.3 15.4 15.9 14.0 11.3 9.8 8.6 125.9