Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for King Island, Furneaux Islands, North West Coast, Central North, North East, Midlands, East Coast, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts
Issued at 11:03 AM EST on Tuesday 23 April 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
King Island, Furneaux Islands, North West Coast, Central North, North East, Midlands, East Coast, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and westerly winds are expected during Wednesday. Areas likely to be affected include the King Island, Midlands and East Coast forecast districts and parts of the Furneaux Islands, North West Coast, Central North, North East, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Tuesday.
Forecast
Coles Bay (42.1213°S, 148.2859°E, 28m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 23° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:18am EST 6:47am EST 5:23pm EST 5:51pm EST NOW19.3° Feels Like: 18.4° Relative Humidity: 57% Dew: 10.6° Wind: NE 6km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.3hPa -
Today Weather
Coles BayNow18.3°cFeels Like:15.6°Wind:N 17km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:65%10°Min23°MaxToday in Coles BayMostly sunny day. High chance of showers, most likely later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast this evening. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.Tomorrow7°Min16°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the N in the early morning. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning SW 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then tending W 35 to 50 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 15. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny day. High chance of showers, most likely later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast this evening. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 21.
Forecast for Coles Bay (42.1213°S, 148.2859°E, 28m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 10° 7° 8° 8° 7° 8° 10° Maximum 23° 16° 17° 19° 18° 20° 18° Chance of rain 90% 20% 5% 5% 20% 30% 30% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Fire Danger Rating Moderate High Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)7
(km/h)28
(km/h)26
(km/h)24
(km/h)27
(km/h)10
(km/h)8
(km/h)2
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction NE NNW WSW W WSW WSW W SW WNW ENE NNW NW WSW SW Relative humidity 44% 38% 62% 50% 61% 54% 66% 56% 72% 65% 70% 57% 69% 54% Dew point 5°C 7°C 3°C 4°C 4°C 6°C 6°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 7°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Coles Bay Rain Forecast
Coles Bay 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar20242025866677684867105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Coles Bay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Apr 1910.1 °C 16.4 °C 7.0 mmSaturday
Apr 204.5 °C 18.1 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Apr 217.8 °C 20.6 °C -Monday
Apr 228.2 °C 22.8 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Apr 2311.0 °C 22.4 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Coles Bay minimum temp history (42.1213°S, 148.2859°E, 28m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.8° 22/04/2024 Coldest this month 4.5° 20/04/2024 Hottest on record 31.4 10/04/2005 Coldest on record 1.0 17/04/2006 Hottest this year 34.9° 13/02/2024 Coldest this year 4.5° 20/04/2024 Long term average 18.8° Long term average 9.9° Average this month 19.5° Average this month 9.5° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.1° 2016 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 7.6° 2006 Coles Bay rainfall history (42.1213°S, 148.2859°E, 28m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 18.2mm 07/04/2024 Total This Month 58.6mm
11.0 daysLong Term Average 55.9mm 12.3 days Wettest April on record 137.0mm 2003 Driest on record 7.2mm 2016 -
Year to Date
Coles Bay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 239.7mm 45.5 day(s) Total For 2024 131.8mm 37.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 312.8mm 48.0 day(s) Wettest Day 18.2mm Apr 7 Lowest Temperature 4.5°C Apr20 Highest Temperature 34.9°C Feb13 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Coles Bay Climatology
Coles Bay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 23.4 23.0 21.5 18.8 16.1 14.1 13.9 14.7 16.8 18.3 20.0 21.9 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 13.4 13.2 12.1 9.9 8.1 6.2 5.8 6.1 7.4 8.6 10.3 11.7 9.4 Mean Rain (mm) 64.9 53.6 65.3 55.9 53.1 56.6 41.3 54.1 45.4 68.4 74.2 54.5 677.0 Mean Rain Days 9.6 11.3 12.3 12.3 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.4 13.1 13.6 12.6 10.8 144.6