Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning.
Initial Flood Watch For The Huon And Derwent Catchments
Issued at 11:36 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
By the Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 1
Minor flooding may develop in the flood watch catchments from Friday afternoon.
A strong westerly stream is bringing persistent showers to the western half of the State and is expected to continue during Friday and Saturday.
In the 24 hours to 9 am Friday, widespread rainfall totals of 5-30 mm have been observed, with isolated higher totals up to 57 mm. Parts of the Huon and Derwent catchments are saturated and the rivers will be highly responsive to further rainfall.
Widespread rainfall totals of 10-20 mm are forecast for Friday and 20-30 mm are forecast for Saturday. Higher totals are possible locally and in elevated areas.
River level rises are occurring in the Huon, Upper Derwent, Styx and Florentine rivers. Further river rises are expected and minor flooding may develop as a result of the forecast rainfall.
Catchments likely to be affected include:
Huon River
Derwent River
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning. The Bureau of Meteorology does not provide a flood warning service for all of the catchments covered by this flood watch. For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
For the latest warnings see www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood
For the latest weather forecast see www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts
Flood Safety Advice:
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm EDT on Saturday 07 December 2019.
Forecast
Bathurst Street Po (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 17° windy with showers Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:51am EDT 5:26am EDT 8:37pm EDT 9:12pm EDT NOW16.7° Feels Like: 8.9° Relative Humidity: 42% Dew: 3.7° Wind: WNW 33km/h Gust: 63km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm Pressure: 995.3hPa -
Today Weather
Bathurst Street PoNow15.9°cFeels Like:6.1°Wind:W 41km/hGusts:57km/hHumidity:38%10°Min17°MaxToday in Bathurst Street PoCloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely this evening. Snow falling above 900 metres in the south. Winds W 40 to 60 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 10 and 17.Tomorrow9°Min19°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres early. Winds W/SW 35 to 55 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 18. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely this evening. Snow falling above 900 metres in the south. Winds W 40 to 60 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 10 and 17.
Forecast for Bathurst Street Po (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 10° 9° 10° 11° 15° 9° 10° Maximum 17° 19° 22° 28° 22° 20° 20° Chance of rain 80% 60% 20% 20% 10% 40% 80% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)35
(km/h)24
(km/h)31
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)15
(km/h)22
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W W WSW WSW SSE N NNE WSW WSW WNW S WNW W Relative humidity 55% 57% 57% 59% 55% 48% 54% 37% 59% 41% 51% 42% 52% 44% Dew point 6°C 8°C 7°C 11°C 6°C 10°C 9°C 12°C 10°C 8°C 5°C 7°C 6°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bathurst Street Po Rain Forecast
Bathurst Street Po 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
HIGH7
MEDIUM8
9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
HIGH13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
HIGH18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
HIGH24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
LOW28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bathurst Street Po Rain Forecast
Bathurst Street Po 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020765655647876105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bathurst Street Po Rain Forecast
Bathurst Street Po 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
HIGH7
MEDIUM8
9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
HIGH13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
HIGH17
HIGH18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
HIGH24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
LOW28
HIGH29
HIGH30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bathurst Street Po Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 028.5 °C 16.6 °C 0.4 mmTuesday
Dec 037.7 °C 15.8 °C 0.4 mmWednesday
Dec 045.8 °C 18.2 °C 3.4 mmThursday
Dec 0510.5 °C 21.0 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 069.4 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bathurst Street Po minimum temp history (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 21.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.8° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.6 30/12/1897 Coldest on record 3.3 03/12/1906 Hottest this year 39.1° 02/03/2019 Coldest this year -0.2° 25/06/2019 Long term average 20.4° Long term average 10.8° Average this month 18.0° Average this month 8.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.0° 1994 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.7° 1904 Bathurst Street Po rainfall history (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.4mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 5.6mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 56.2mm 12.7 days Wettest December on record 206.4mm 1994 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Bathurst Street Po Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 612.6mm 162.9 day(s) Total For 2019 370.8mm 124.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 536.6mm 143.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.2mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature -0.2°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 39.1°C Mar 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bathurst Street Po Climatology
Bathurst Street Po Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.7 21.7 20.2 17.4 14.5 12.0 11.8 13.1 15.2 17.0 18.7 20.4 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.0 12.1 10.9 9.0 7.0 5.2 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.8 9.3 10.8 8.3 Mean Rain (mm) 45.7 40.3 45.0 51.6 45.8 53.0 53.0 53.5 53.3 62.1 53.1 56.2 612.5 Mean Rain Days 10.7 9.2 11.4 12.4 14.0 15.1 16.1 15.8 15.2 16.1 14.2 12.7 161.6