Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
Marine Wind Warning Summary for South Australia
Issued at 10:00 AM CDT on Wednesday 11 December 2019
for the period until midnight CDT Wednesday 11 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 11 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Adelaide Metropolitan Waters, Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 3:50 pm CDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Port Augusta West (32.4838°S, 137.7583°E, 6m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY15° 30° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:37am CDT 6:05am CDT 8:19pm CDT 8:48pm CDT NOW26.9° Feels Like: 19.9° Relative Humidity: 30% Dew: 7.9° Wind: SE 33km/h Gust: 44km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1016.9hPa -
Today Weather
Port Augusta WestNow26.3°cFeels Like:19.4°Wind:S 28km/hGusts:41km/hHumidity:23%15°Min30°MaxToday in Port Augusta WestSunny. Winds S/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 38.Tomorrow16°Min28°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds S/SE 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 32. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds S/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 38.
Forecast for Port Augusta West (32.4838°S, 137.7583°E, 6m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 15° 16° 14° 15° 16° 19° 26° Maximum 30° 28° 27° 33° 37° 42° 45° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 28
(km/h)37
(km/h)32
(km/h)35
(km/h)27
(km/h)35
(km/h)17
(km/h)26
(km/h)12
(km/h)21
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)23
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction S SSW S SSW S SSW S SSW ESE W ENE SSW NE N Relative humidity 45% 28% 52% 34% 52% 28% 50% 25% 40% 14% 25% 10% 18% 9% Dew point 9°C 10°C 10°C 11°C 9°C 7°C 11°C 11°C 10°C 5°C 6°C 4°C 8°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Port Augusta West Rain Forecast
Port Augusta West 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Port Augusta West Rain Forecast
Port Augusta West 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020457865655577105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Port Augusta West Rain Forecast
Port Augusta West 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
4
LOW5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Port Augusta West Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0715.2 °C 32.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0816.8 °C 42.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0920.6 °C 28.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1017.1 °C 28.4 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1115.8 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Port Augusta West minimum temp history (32.4838°S, 137.7583°E, 6m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.7° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.2° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 47.2 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 7.7 03/12/2005 Hottest this year 49.5° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -0.4° 02/07/2019 Long term average 32.1° Long term average 17.2° Average this month 29.7° Average this month 15.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 36.2° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.1° 2001 Port Augusta West rainfall history (32.4838°S, 137.7583°E, 6m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 26.8mm 4.7 days Wettest December on record 72.6mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for SA
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Year to Date
Port Augusta West Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 232.7mm 76.7 day(s) Total For 2019 117.8mm 45.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 107.8mm 43.0 day(s) Wettest Day 31.6mm Jun12 Lowest Temperature -0.4°C Jul 2 Highest Temperature 49.5°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Port Augusta West Climatology
Port Augusta West Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.2 33.2 30.5 26.6 21.7 17.9 17.7 20.1 23.9 27.2 30.4 32.1 26.3 Mean Min (°C) 19.5 18.8 16.6 13.0 8.8 6.2 4.7 5.3 8.4 11.7 15.5 17.2 12.1 Mean Rain (mm) 14.8 17.4 16.4 23.3 17.4 26.9 17.8 15.9 19.9 16.4 19.7 26.8 232.2 Mean Rain Days 3.6 3.2 3.6 4.6 7.4 12.0 11.8 8.1 6.6 5.3 5.8 4.7 71.4