Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Flinders, Mid North and Riverland forecast districts
Issued at 04:13 PM CDT on Sunday 08 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot to very hot and dry with north to northwesterly winds ahead of a gusty southwest to southerly change 35-50 km/h during the afternoon and early evening. Areas of raised dust with the change.
For Monday 09 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Flinders, Mid North and Riverland
The Country Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.cfs.sa.gov.au, and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.cfs.sa.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 7:00 am CDT Monday.
Forecast
Penwortham (33.9213°S, 138.6393°E, 476m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY22° 34° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:29am CDT 5:58am CDT 8:18pm CDT 8:47pm CDT NOW24.6° Feels Like: 20.1° Relative Humidity: 12% Dew: -6.7° Wind: NNE 9km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1012.9hPa -
Today Weather
PenworthamNow25.7°cFeels Like:20.3°Wind:NNW 22km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:27%22°Min34°MaxToday in PenworthamPartly cloudy. Areas of raised dust in the east in the late morning and afternoon. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 40 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon then tending S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 38.Tomorrow11°Min29°MaxMostly sunny. Winds S/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon then tending S/SE in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 32. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of raised dust in the east in the late morning and afternoon. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 40 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon then tending S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 38.
Forecast for Penwortham (33.9213°S, 138.6393°E, 476m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 22° 11° 9° 9° 7° 8° 9° Maximum 34° 29° 28° 25° 23° 25° 30° Chance of rain 10% 5% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 12
(km/h)19
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)9
(km/h)20
(km/h)8
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction W SW S SSW SE SSW S SSW S SSW SW SW SSW SW Relative humidity 31% 31% 61% 23% 46% 23% 64% 31% 62% 28% 66% 30% 57% 18% Dew point 10°C 14°C 9°C 6°C 6°C 5°C 9°C 7°C 6°C 4°C 9°C 6°C 10°C 3°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Penwortham Rain Forecast
Penwortham 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
LOW26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Penwortham Rain Forecast
Penwortham 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020457764745666105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Penwortham Rain Forecast
Penwortham 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
24
25
LOW26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Penwortham Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Dec 049.8 °C 26.7 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 055.2 °C 28.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0611.4 °C 23.6 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 076.6 °C 30.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0815.0 °C 37 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Penwortham minimum temp history (33.9213°S, 138.6393°E, 476m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.0° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.2° 05/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.7 19/12/2015 Coldest on record 3.0 01/12/2001 Hottest this year 44.9° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.5° 24/06/2019 Long term average 27.5° Long term average 12.6° Average this month 23.7° Average this month 8.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.3° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 10.1° 2001 Penwortham rainfall history (33.9213°S, 138.6393°E, 476m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.2mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 10.8mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 37.3mm 6.7 days Wettest December on record 88.8mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for SA
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Year to Date
Penwortham Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 581.2mm 117.3 day(s) Total For 2019 351.2mm 94.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 390.4mm 113.0 day(s) Wettest Day 44.6mm Jun12 Lowest Temperature -2.5°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 44.9°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Penwortham Climatology
Penwortham Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.2 29.8 26.1 21.6 17.2 13.4 12.8 14.2 17.4 21.0 25.1 27.5 21.3 Mean Min (°C) 14.9 14.9 12.2 9.1 6.6 5.0 4.1 4.4 6.2 7.8 10.8 12.6 9.0 Mean Rain (mm) 25.5 28.0 27.1 41.6 55.1 74.2 71.5 67.7 66.1 48.9 38.2 37.3 581.1 Mean Rain Days 4.9 4.3 5.3 7.7 11.6 14.8 17.2 16.1 12.4 8.7 7.6 6.7 112.5