Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
Marine Wind Warning Summary for South Australia
Issued at 10:00 AM CDT on Wednesday 11 December 2019
for the period until midnight CDT Wednesday 11 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 11 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Adelaide Metropolitan Waters, Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 3:50 pm CDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Ovingham (34.8979°S, 138.5857°E, 39m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 27° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:26am CDT 5:55am CDT 8:22pm CDT 8:52pm CDT NOW23.6° Feels Like: 20.3° Relative Humidity: 34% Dew: 6.8° Wind: SSW 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1018.7hPa -
Today Weather
OvinghamNow24.4°cFeels Like:22.3°Wind:NE 7km/hGusts:7km/hHumidity:32%12°Min27°MaxToday in OvinghamSunny with some thin high cloud. Winds SE 15 to 25 km/h turning S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day and reaching up to 40 km/h about the N beaches during the afternoon.Tomorrow13°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy morning then a mostly sunny afternoon. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny with some thin high cloud. Winds SE 15 to 25 km/h turning S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day and reaching up to 40 km/h about the N beaches during the afternoon.
Forecast for Ovingham (34.8979°S, 138.5857°E, 39m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 13° 11° 13° 13° 16° 24° Maximum 27° 24° 23° 25° 28° 36° 41° Chance of rain 5% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)19
(km/h)14
(km/h)22
(km/h)9
(km/h)19
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)3
(km/h)13
(km/h)6
(km/h)12
(km/h)14
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction SSE SSW S SW SSW SW WSW WSW NE WSW ENE WSW NE W Relative humidity 53% 32% 59% 38% 62% 46% 67% 40% 47% 24% 31% 18% 23% 14% Dew point 8°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 11°C 8°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 10°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ovingham Rain Forecast
Ovingham 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
LOW28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ovingham Rain Forecast
Ovingham 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020336753656666105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ovingham Rain Forecast
Ovingham 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
LOW28
29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
5
6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ovingham Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 078.6 °C 27.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0814.8 °C 38.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0920.7 °C 24.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1013.9 °C 27 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1111 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ovingham minimum temp history (34.8979°S, 138.5857°E, 39m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 38.9° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.6° 07/12/2019 Hottest on record 44.2 31/12/1904 Coldest on record 6.8 03/12/1955 Hottest this year 46.6° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.8° 23/06/2019 Long term average 26.8° Long term average 15.1° Average this month 24.3° Average this month 13.2° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.6° 1898 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 12.6° 1909 Ovingham rainfall history (34.8979°S, 138.5857°E, 39m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 6.0mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 8.6mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 26.3mm 6.1 days Wettest December on record 101.1mm 1898 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for SA
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Year to Date
Ovingham Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 529.4mm 121.3 day(s) Total For 2019 357.8mm 100.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 343.2mm 110.0 day(s) Wettest Day 39.8mm Jun12 Lowest Temperature 1.8°C Jun23 Highest Temperature 46.6°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ovingham Climatology
Ovingham Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.5 28.5 26.0 22.1 18.6 15.8 14.9 16.1 18.4 21.3 24.4 26.8 21.8 Mean Min (°C) 16.6 16.8 15.2 12.7 10.4 8.5 7.5 8.0 9.2 11.1 13.1 15.1 12.0 Mean Rain (mm) 19.8 20.8 24.0 44.3 68.2 71.7 66.5 61.5 51.1 44.5 30.7 26.3 529.8 Mean Rain Days 4.4 3.9 5.5 9.4 13.3 14.8 16.2 15.8 13.2 10.9 7.8 6.1 119.6