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Forecast

Dernancourt (34.8613°S, 138.6832°E, 86m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Increasing sunshine 13° 27°
    increasing sunshine
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:55am CDT 6:23am CDT 8:30pm CDT 8:58pm CDT
    NOW
    16.7° Feels Like: 15.8°
    Relative Humidity: 68%
    Dew: 10.9°
    Wind: SSW 6km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1013.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Dernancourt
    Now
    17.0°c
    Feels Like:
    14.0°
    Wind:
    S 17km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    68%
    Increasing sunshine
     
    13°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Today in Dernancourt
    Cloud clearing. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Increasing sunshine
    13°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower developing. Winds N/NW 25 to 40 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloud clearing. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

    Forecast for Dernancourt (34.8613°S, 138.6832°E, 86m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Increasing sunshine Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 13° 20° 15° 15° 15° 15° 15°
    Maximum 27° 31° 22° 25° 26° 27° 27°
    Chance of rain 5% 60% 30% 30% 20% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 8
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ESE WNW NNW W W W W W WNW W SW WSW SSE WSW
    Relative humidity 61% 33% 36% 51% 54% 42% 54% 46% 67% 46% 65% 44% 56% 36%
    Dew point 10°C 8°C 13°C 14°C 8°C 8°C 9°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 14°C 12°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Dernancourt Rain Forecast


    Dernancourt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 January to 22 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 11 February to 15 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Dernancourt Rain Forecast


    Dernancourt 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    8
    6
    7
    6
    5
    7
    6
    5
    6
    6
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Dernancourt Rain Forecast


    Dernancourt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 January to 22 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 11 February to 15 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Dernancourt Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Jan 16
    16.4 °C 23.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Jan 17
    12.7 °C 24.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jan 18
    13.9 °C 27.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 19
    16.4 °C 23.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 20
    15.0 °C 20 °C
    9.6 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Dernancourt minimum temp history (34.8613°S, 138.6832°E, 86m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 42.8° 09/01/2020 Coldest this month 11.8° 05/01/2020
    Hottest on record 45.7 28/01/2009 Coldest on record 9.2 12/01/1983
    Hottest this year 42.8° 09/01/2020 Coldest this year 11.8° 05/01/2020
    Long term average 29.4° Long term average 17.2°
    Average this month 29.6° Average this month 16.8°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 33.7° 2001 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 14.1° 1987
    Dernancourt rainfall history (34.8613°S, 138.6832°E, 86m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 9.6mm 20/01/2020 Total This Month 15.6mm
    5.0 days
    Long Term Average 21.0mm 4.6 days Wettest January on record 52.8mm 2001
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for SA

  16. Year to Date

    Dernancourt Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 21.0mm 4.6 day(s)
    Total For 2020 15.6mm 5.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 0.0mm 0.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 9.6mm Jan20
    Lowest Temperature 11.8°C Jan 5
    Highest Temperature 42.8°C Jan 9
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Dernancourt Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.4 29.5 26.5 22.7 19.0 16.1 15.3 16.7 19.1 22.1 25.3 27.3 22.4
    Mean Min (°C) 17.2 17.2 15.4 12.5 10.3 8.2 7.5 8.2 9.8 11.5 14.0 15.6 12.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 21.0 15.9 27.4 39.6 61.4 79.3 78.2 68.2 60.1 42.3 29.9 29.3 551.2
    Mean Rain Days 4.6 3.5 5.8 8.0 12.3 14.9 16.3 16.0 13.4 9.9 7.9 7.0 117.2