Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for Flinders and Mid North forecast districts
Issued at 05:21 PM CST on Friday 12 August 2022
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
Flinders and Mid North forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and westerly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the Flinders and Mid North forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Friday.
Forecast
Auburn (34.028°S, 138.6816°E, 307m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW4° 11° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:32am CST 6:57am CST 5:44pm CST 6:10pm CST NOW7.9° Feels Like: 5.3° Relative Humidity: 100% Dew: 8.0° Wind: W 11km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 11.6mm Pressure: 1012.9hPa -
Today Weather
AuburnNow9.0°cFeels Like:5.8°Wind:W 15km/hGusts:19km/hHumidity:97%4°Min11°MaxToday in AuburnCloudy. Very high chance of showers. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.Tomorrow4°Min11°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the W, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 16. -
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.
Forecast for Auburn (34.028°S, 138.6816°E, 307m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 4° 6° 4° 5° 5° 8° 5° Maximum 11° 12° 13° 14° 16° 13° 12° Chance of rain 80% 70% 90% 30% 80% 90% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Slight Nil Slight Slight Slight Nil Slight 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)20
(km/h)6
(km/h)15
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)5
(km/h)8
(km/h)15
(km/h)20
(km/h)14
(km/h)20
(km/h)19
(km/h)28
(km/h)Wind direction W W W W NW W WSW W N NNW WNW WNW NW W Relative humidity 100% 90% 100% 84% 99% 80% 99% 66% 75% 63% 91% 74% 100% 79% Dew point 7°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Auburn Rain Forecast
Auburn 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
HIGH13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Auburn Rain Forecast
Auburn 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20222023778988775474105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 2
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Auburn Rain Forecast
Auburn 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
HIGH13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Auburn Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 081.1 °C 14.1 °C 2.2 mmTuesday
Aug 092.0 °C 15.7 °C 0.2 mmWednesday
Aug 108.5 °C 12.6 °C 0.2 mmThursday
Aug 114.7 °C 14.2 °C 3.8 mmFriday
Aug 127.6 °C 10.4 °C 11.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Auburn minimum temp history (34.028°S, 138.6816°E, 307m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 19.3° 03/08/2022 Coldest this month 1.1° 08/08/2022 Hottest on record 26.7 30/08/2007 Coldest on record -3.3 16/08/1994 Hottest this year 38.7° 11/01/2022 Coldest this year -2.1° 10/07/2022 Long term average 14.2° Long term average 4.3° Average this month 13.7° Average this month 5.8° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.5° 2006 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 2.3° 2014 Auburn rainfall history (34.028°S, 138.6816°E, 307m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 11.2mm 12/08/2022 Total This Month 37.4mm
10.0 daysLong Term Average 67.9mm 16.5 days Wettest August on record 130.0mm 1996 Driest on record 14.4mm 2014 -
Year to Date
Auburn Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 363.8mm 83.0 day(s) Total For 2022 255.2mm 75.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 308.8mm 78.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.0mm May30 Lowest Temperature -2.1°C Jul10 Highest Temperature 38.7°C Jan11 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Auburn Climatology
Auburn Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.3 29.6 26.2 21.8 17.1 13.5 12.9 14.2 17.4 21.2 25.0 27.7 21.4 Mean Min (°C) 14.9 14.8 12.2 9.1 6.5 4.8 4.0 4.3 6.1 7.9 10.7 12.7 9.0 Mean Rain (mm) 22.4 24.5 22.5 37.2 53.5 69.2 66.6 67.9 60.4 44.2 35.2 37.7 540.2 Mean Rain Days 4.8 4.3 5.4 7.4 11.7 15.3 17.6 16.5 12.4 9.3 7.7 6.7 118.6