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Forecast

Athol Park (34.8577°S, 138.5426°E, 7m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Thunderstorms 15°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:33am CST 6:59am CST 5:43pm CST 6:09pm CST
    NOW
    11.1° Feels Like: 7.9°
    Relative Humidity: 85%
    Dew: 8.7°
    Wind: SW 15km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 1.4mm
    Pressure: 1012.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Athol Park
    Now
    10.8°c
    Feels Like:
    8.4°
    Wind:
    SW 11km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    87%
    Thunderstorms
     
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Today in Athol Park
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Thunderstorms
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Athol Park

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

    Forecast for Athol Park (34.8577°S, 138.5426°E, 7m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Thunderstorms Fog then sunny Showers easing Mostly sunny Clearing shower Showers Thunderstorms
    Minimum 11°
    Maximum 15° 16° 15° 17° 18° 17° 14°
    Chance of rain 80% 70% 70% 40% 70% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 5-10mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W WSW WNW W NW WSW WSW WNW NE N NW NW WNW W
    Relative humidity 85% 77% 89% 73% 88% 76% 84% 67% 71% 65% 82% 69% 82% 68%
    Dew point 9°C 11°C 10°C 11°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 9°C 12°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Athol Park Rain Forecast


    Athol Park 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Athol Park Rain Forecast


    Athol Park 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2022
    2023
    6
    7
    8
    8
    8
    7
    6
    8
    5
    3
    7
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 2

    ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Athol Park Rain Forecast


    Athol Park 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Athol Park Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Aug 08
    6.2 °C 16.0 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 09
    4.7 °C 18.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 10
    11.2 °C 14.9 °C
    1.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 11
    8.8 °C 16.2 °C
    10.4 mm
    Friday
    Aug 12
    11.0 °C 14.9 °C
    5.6 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Athol Park minimum temp history (34.8577°S, 138.5426°E, 7m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 20.9° 03/08/2022 Coldest this month 4.7° 09/08/2022
    Hottest on record 29.1 31/08/1911 Coldest on record 0.9 07/08/1888
    Hottest this year 40.3° 11/01/2022 Coldest this year 2.7° 10/07/2022
    Long term average 16.1° Long term average 8.0°
    Average this month 16.3° Average this month 9.2°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.9° 1914 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 6.4° 1943
    Athol Park rainfall history (34.8577°S, 138.5426°E, 7m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.4mm 11/08/2022 Total This Month 31.6mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 61.3mm 15.8 days Wettest August on record 157.7mm 1852
    Driest on record 8.4mm 1944
  15. Year to Date

    Athol Park Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 374.9mm 83.0 day(s)
    Total For 2022 341.2mm 83.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2021 355.6mm 76.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 43.0mm Jun 5
    Lowest Temperature 2.7°C Jul10
    Highest Temperature 40.3°C Jan11
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Athol Park Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.6 28.5 26.1 22.2 18.6 15.8 15.0 16.1 18.4 21.4 24.5 26.9 21.8
    Mean Min (°C) 16.6 16.8 15.2 12.8 10.4 8.4 7.6 8.0 9.3 11.2 13.2 15.1 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 20.0 20.6 23.5 43.7 68.1 71.6 66.1 61.3 50.7 44.2 30.5 25.9 526.0
    Mean Rain Days 4.4 3.9 5.4 9.3 13.3 14.7 16.2 15.8 13.2 10.8 7.8 6.1 121.0