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Forecast

Arno Bay (33.9119°S, 136.5683°E, 11m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Showers 14°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:40am CST 7:06am CST 5:53pm CST 6:18pm CST
    NOW
    8.9° Feels Like: 5.1°
    Relative Humidity: 92%
    Dew: 7.7°
    Wind: W 17km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 5.8mm
    Pressure: 1016.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Arno Bay
    Now
    8.6°c
    Feels Like:
    5.2°
    Wind:
    SW 15km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    94%
    Showers
     
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Arno Bay
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 17.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 18.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 17.

    Forecast for Arno Bay (33.9119°S, 136.5683°E, 11m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Showers Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Showers Possible shower
    Minimum 10° 10°
    Maximum 14° 15° 16° 17° 21° 15° 14°
    Chance of rain 80% 40% 40% 10% 60% 90% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 23
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W WSW WNW W WNW WSW WNW N N NNW WNW WNW WNW W
    Relative humidity 82% 80% 88% 69% 76% 62% 83% 57% 52% 52% 78% 73% 80% 66%
    Dew point 7°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 7°C 9°C 7°C 9°C 7°C 11°C 8°C 10°C 7°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Arno Bay Rain Forecast


    Arno Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Arno Bay Rain Forecast


    Arno Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2022
    2023
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    6
    7
    6
    4
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 2

    ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Arno Bay Rain Forecast


    Arno Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Arno Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Aug 08
    5.8 °C 17.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 09
    6.8 °C 17.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 10
    10.6 °C 17.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 11
    8.0 °C 12.9 °C
    3.8 mm
    Friday
    Aug 12
    7.5 °C 14.9 °C
    2.8 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Arno Bay minimum temp history (33.9119°S, 136.5683°E, 11m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 20.7° 03/08/2022 Coldest this month 5.8° 08/08/2022
    Hottest on record 30.5 30/08/2007 Coldest on record 1.4 24/08/2016
    Hottest this year 38.7° 10/01/2022 Coldest this year 2.1° 21/07/2022
    Long term average 16.8° Long term average 7.4°
    Average this month 15.8° Average this month 8.3°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.4° 2007 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 5.8° 2014
    Arno Bay rainfall history (33.9119°S, 136.5683°E, 11m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 6.8mm 05/08/2022 Total This Month 30.6mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 42.0mm 12.7 days Wettest August on record 89.4mm 1978
    Driest on record 5.0mm 1980
  15. Year to Date

    Arno Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 242.4mm 69.5 day(s)
    Total For 2022 243.6mm 77.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2021 206.6mm 73.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 57.2mm Jan22
    Lowest Temperature 2.1°C Jul21
    Highest Temperature 38.7°C Jan10
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Arno Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.1 28.2 26.0 23.4 19.3 16.0 15.6 16.8 20.3 23.2 25.8 27.4 22.6
    Mean Min (°C) 16.1 16.2 14.6 12.5 10.3 8.2 7.5 7.4 8.7 10.0 12.3 14.0 11.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 16.4 17.8 21.4 24.7 36.1 43.2 40.8 42.0 34.8 28.9 22.8 23.2 356.4
    Mean Rain Days 3.7 3.7 5.1 7.1 10.9 12.6 13.7 12.7 10.4 7.6 5.3 5.0 96.3