Forecast
Ardrossan (34.423°S, 137.9168°E, 17m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW9° 13° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:35am CST 7:01am CST 5:46pm CST 6:12pm CST NOW8.2° Feels Like: 5.1° Relative Humidity: 94% Dew: 7.3° Wind: SW 13km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 2.4mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
ArdrossanNow9.6°cFeels Like:6.3°Wind:SW 15km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:90%9°Min13°MaxToday in ArdrossanPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 6 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.Tomorrow9°Min13°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h turning W 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 6 with daytime temperatures reaching around 16. -
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ardrossan
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 6 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.
Forecast for Ardrossan (34.423°S, 137.9168°E, 17m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 9° 9° 9° 9° 10° 12° 10° Maximum 13° 14° 13° 14° 17° 13° 13° Chance of rain 70% 30% 50% 50% 90% 80% 90% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)24
(km/h)13
(km/h)19
(km/h)19
(km/h)25
(km/h)12
(km/h)12
(km/h)26
(km/h)26
(km/h)20
(km/h)18
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW W W WNW W W NNW N NNW WNW W NW WNW Relative humidity 82% 74% 88% 73% 84% 69% 81% 66% 68% 68% 78% 72% 83% 73% Dew point 9°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 10°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ardrossan Rain Forecast
Ardrossan 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
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CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ardrossan Rain Forecast
Ardrossan 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20222023778978675375105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 2
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ardrossan Rain Forecast
Ardrossan 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
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CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Ardrossan Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 084.4 °C - 8.5 mmTuesday
Aug 093.6 °C - 0.0 mmWednesday
Aug 106.9 °C - 1.8 mmThursday
Aug 11- - -Friday
Aug 1210.1 °C - 5.4 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ardrossan minimum temp history (34.423°S, 137.9168°E, 17m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.2° 19/12/2021 Coldest this month 3.6° 09/08/2022 Hottest on record 30.1 28/08/1977 Coldest on record -1.0 26/08/2002 Hottest this year 37.2° 19/12/2021 Coldest this year 3.4° 28/06/2022 Long term average 17.4° Long term average 6.4° Average this month 23.6° Average this month 6.9° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. ° 2001 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. ° 2001 Ardrossan rainfall history (34.423°S, 137.9168°E, 17m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.5mm 08/08/2022 Total This Month 14.7mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 35.1mm 10.7 days Wettest August on record 64.0mm 1996 Driest on record 4.4mm 1980 -
Year to Date
Ardrossan Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 222.0mm 54.5 day(s) Total For 2022 238.2mm 41.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 178.4mm 55.0 day(s) Wettest Day 108.4mm Jan24 Lowest Temperature 3.4°C Jun28 Highest Temperature 37.2°C Dec19 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Ardrossan Climatology
Ardrossan Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.8 28.5 26.5 23.7 19.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 20.5 23.3 25.4 27.1 22.8 Mean Min (°C) 16.0 16.1 14.4 11.4 9.0 7.1 6.3 6.4 7.5 9.5 12.2 14.0 10.8 Mean Rain (mm) 14.4 20.0 17.8 25.8 35.2 36.5 37.2 35.1 31.6 29.3 21.3 17.5 327.6 Mean Rain Days 2.7 2.8 3.4 5.5 8.5 9.7 11.2 10.7 8.4 6.8 4.8 3.9 79.2