Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Fire Weather Warning
for Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast forecast districts
Issued at 04:40 AM EST on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Severe fire danger is forecast for the Southeast Coast, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, and Wide Bay and Burnett Districts today. Locally severe fire danger is also expected in forested parts of the north and eastern Maranoa and Warrego District.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the northern Wide Bay and Burnett District. Thunderstorms there have the potential to be severe producing damaging wind gusts.
Severe fire danger is likely to continue in the southeast on Saturday.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Tugun Heights (28.1508°S, 153.4823°E, 40m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY19° 32° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:15am EDT 5:41am EDT 7:32pm EDT 7:59pm EDT NOW29.7° Feels Like: 28.1° Relative Humidity: 49% Dew: 17.8° Wind: NNE 22km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1007.1hPa -
Today Weather
Tugun HeightsNow31.0°cFeels Like:29.6°Wind:NNE 31km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:59%19°Min32°MaxToday in Tugun HeightsHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 41.Tomorrow21°Min32°MaxHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h turning W/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 42. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 41.
Forecast for Tugun Heights (28.1508°S, 153.4823°E, 40m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 19° 21° 20° 21° 21° 22° 21° Maximum 32° 32° 29° 28° 29° 30° 28° Chance of rain 5% 30% 60% 20% 5% 50% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 17
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)23
(km/h)26
(km/h)23
(km/h)21
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)26
(km/h)25
(km/h)29
(km/h)31
(km/h)Wind direction N NE ENE ESE S SSE SSE SE NNE NE N NNE N NNE Relative humidity 40% 51% 51% 61% 69% 69% 74% 72% 68% 66% 65% 65% 65% 64% Dew point 16°C 19°C 19°C 21°C 21°C 22°C 21°C 21°C 20°C 22°C 21°C 22°C 20°C 20°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tugun Heights Rain Forecast
Tugun Heights 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
LOW23
24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
MEDIUM31
HIGHJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tugun Heights Rain Forecast
Tugun Heights 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tugun Heights Rain Forecast
Tugun Heights 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
LOW23
24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
MEDIUM31
HIGHJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tugun Heights Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0219.7 °C 33.7 °C 10.6 mmTuesday
Dec 0316.2 °C 29.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0413.0 °C 31.0 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0514.4 °C 31 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0614 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tugun Heights minimum temp history (28.1508°S, 153.4823°E, 40m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 33.7° 02/12/2019 Coldest this month 13.0° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 38.0 26/12/2001 Coldest on record 12.2 07/12/2013 Hottest this year 33.7° 02/12/2019 Coldest this year 0.9° 15/07/2019 Long term average 27.3° Long term average 19.8° Average this month 30.7° Average this month 16.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.2° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 17.5° 1999 Tugun Heights rainfall history (28.1508°S, 153.4823°E, 40m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.6mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 21.2mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 155.2mm 13.5 days Wettest December on record 493.8mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Tugun Heights Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1532.6mm 155.6 day(s) Total For 2019 774.8mm 125.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 977.6mm 135.0 day(s) Wettest Day 61.4mm Mar17 Lowest Temperature 0.9°C Jul15 Highest Temperature 33.7°C Dec 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Tugun Heights Climatology
Tugun Heights Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.4 28.3 27.4 25.4 23.2 21.0 20.6 21.5 23.3 24.5 26.0 27.3 24.7 Mean Min (°C) 21.0 20.9 19.7 17.0 14.0 11.3 10.1 10.4 13.3 15.9 18.2 19.8 15.9 Mean Rain (mm) 171.7 174.8 187.5 168.5 139.7 140.1 74.8 62.3 41.2 87.4 129.4 155.2 1532.8 Mean Rain Days 14.7 16.0 17.8 15.6 15.0 13.4 10.3 8.3 8.6 10.0 12.4 13.5 143.1