Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds And Large Hailstones
for parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:46 pm Friday, 13 December 2019.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones.
Weather Situation
DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES for the following areas:
Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Maroochydore, Gympie, Caboolture, Noosa Heads, Kilcoy and Nambour.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 3:50 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
The Palms (26.2048°S, 152.591°E, 84m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY20° 35° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:25am EST 4:51am EST 6:36pm EST 7:02pm EST NOW32.8° Feels Like: 34.4° Relative Humidity: 50% Dew: 21.0° Wind: NE 13km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
The PalmsNow29.4°cFeels Like:28.4°Wind:NE 24km/hGusts:35km/hHumidity:57%20°Min35°MaxToday in The PalmsHot. Mostly sunny morning. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening, possibly severe. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 40 km/h before tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 33 to 38.Tomorrow21°Min34°MaxHot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming N 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 38. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening, possibly severe. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 40 km/h before tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 33 to 38.
Forecast for The Palms (26.2048°S, 152.591°E, 84m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 20° 21° 21° 21° 21° 19° 17° Maximum 35° 34° 33° 39° 31° 30° 33° Chance of rain 70% 60% 50% 5% 10% 5% 5% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)12
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)12
(km/h)7
(km/h)17
(km/h)21
(km/h)18
(km/h)19
(km/h)12
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction N NE N E NNE NE NW NNE SE SE SE SE ESE ESE Relative humidity 61% 55% 68% 50% 66% 44% 60% 26% 57% 45% 58% 43% 55% 38% Dew point 21°C 22°C 22°C 22°C 20°C 19°C 21°C 17°C 18°C 18°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
The Palms Rain Forecast
The Palms 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
The Palms Rain Forecast
The Palms 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
The Palms Rain Forecast
The Palms 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
The Palms Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0920.8 °C 33.5 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1019.2 °C 35.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1121.0 °C 37.9 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1221.1 °C 37 °C 7.8 mmFriday
Dec 1321 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
The Palms minimum temp history (26.2048°S, 152.591°E, 84m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 40.1° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 12.9° 05/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.0 26/12/2001 Coldest on record 10.1 01/12/1969 Hottest this year 40.1° 07/12/2019 Coldest this year -0.2° 21/08/2019 Long term average 31.0° Long term average 18.7° Average this month 36.7° Average this month 19.4° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 33.4° 2001 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 16.0° 2006 The Palms rainfall history (26.2048°S, 152.591°E, 84m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 25.8mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 33.6mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 133.3mm 10.5 days Wettest December on record 584.5mm 2001 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
The Palms Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1067.7mm 114.4 day(s) Total For 2019 540.4mm 115.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 907.6mm 138.0 day(s) Wettest Day 44.4mm Mar31 Lowest Temperature -0.2°C Aug21 Highest Temperature 40.1°C Dec 7 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
The Palms Climatology
The Palms Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.3 30.4 29.3 27.1 24.4 22.0 21.8 23.4 26.2 28.3 30.0 31.0 27.1 Mean Min (°C) 20.0 19.9 18.3 15.1 11.5 8.4 6.6 7.4 10.7 14.0 16.8 18.7 13.9 Mean Rain (mm) 155.7 161.5 138.6 79.3 63.5 57.5 46.5 36.7 44.1 65.8 85.2 133.3 1062.6 Mean Rain Days 12.1 12.9 13.8 10.9 9.6 8.1 6.8 6.2 6.6 7.8 9.1 10.5 109.3