Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Fire Weather Warning
for Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast forecast districts
Issued at 04:46 AM EST on Saturday 07 December 2019
Weather Situation
Severe fire danger is forecast for the Southeast Coast, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, and Wide Bay and Burnett Districts on Saturday, with locally extreme conditions in the western Southeast Coast District and eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt District. Locally severe fire danger is also expected in forested parts of the north and eastern Maranoa and Warrego District and the southern Central Highlands and Coalfields.
A southeasterly wind change is expected to move through the Southeast Coast District in the afternoon.
For the rest of Saturday 07 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Pine Creek (25.0025°S, 152.1902°E, 45m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY23° 34° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:28am EST 4:53am EST 6:31pm EST 6:56pm EST NOW26.1° Feels Like: 26.1° Relative Humidity: 78% Dew: 22.0° Wind: NNW 24km/h Gust: 26km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1012.0hPa -
Today Weather
Pine CreekNow25.3°cFeels Like:26.5°Wind:NNW 19km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:84%23°Min34°MaxToday in Pine CreekHot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h turning N 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 40.Tomorrow22°Min34°MaxHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze in the south in the morning. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 40. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h turning N 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 40.
Forecast for Pine Creek (25.0025°S, 152.1902°E, 45m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 23° 22° 21° 21° 21° 21° 21° Maximum 34° 34° 33° 33° 33° 32° 33° Chance of rain 30% 20% 5% 20% 20% 10% 80% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)35
(km/h)19
(km/h)29
(km/h)18
(km/h)26
(km/h)18
(km/h)25
(km/h)15
(km/h)27
(km/h)16
(km/h)28
(km/h)19
(km/h)30
(km/h)Wind direction N NNE N NE ESE E E ENE ENE ENE NE NE NNE NNE Relative humidity 52% 58% 49% 46% 55% 47% 52% 48% 52% 49% 52% 47% 48% 50% Dew point 21°C 22°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 18°C 20°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Pine Creek Rain Forecast
Pine Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
LOW23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Pine Creek Rain Forecast
Pine Creek 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Pine Creek Rain Forecast
Pine Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
LOW23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Pine Creek Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0223.9 °C 34.5 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0320.0 °C 35.4 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0418.8 °C 35.6 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0519.5 °C 36.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0622.9 °C 34 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Pine Creek minimum temp history (25.0025°S, 152.1902°E, 45m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 18.8° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 37.6 19/12/1995 Coldest on record 11.0 11/12/1964 Hottest this year 36.2° 21/02/2019 Coldest this year 4.8° 13/08/2019 Long term average 29.6° Long term average 20.5° Average this month 34.7° Average this month 20.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.0° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 18.2° 1999 Pine Creek rainfall history (25.0025°S, 152.1902°E, 45m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 126.6mm 10.5 days Wettest December on record 572.8mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Pine Creek Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1019.9mm 105.5 day(s) Total For 2019 308.2mm 90.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 685.0mm 95.0 day(s) Wettest Day 23.4mm Apr27 Lowest Temperature 4.8°C Aug13 Highest Temperature 36.2°C Feb21 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Pine Creek Climatology
Pine Creek Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.2 30.1 29.2 27.5 24.8 22.6 22.1 23.4 25.5 27.0 28.5 29.6 26.7 Mean Min (°C) 21.4 21.4 20.1 17.5 14.2 11.7 10.3 10.9 13.7 16.5 18.8 20.5 16.4 Mean Rain (mm) 177.3 153.8 116.8 57.7 68.8 54.6 39.8 33.6 37.2 68.9 84.8 126.6 1017.2 Mean Rain Days 12.3 12.6 11.8 8.8 8.4 6.9 6.2 5.4 5.8 7.9 8.9 10.5 97.5