Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Fire Weather Warning
for Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast forecast districts
Issued at 04:46 AM EST on Saturday 07 December 2019
Weather Situation
Severe fire danger is forecast for the Southeast Coast, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, and Wide Bay and Burnett Districts on Saturday, with locally extreme conditions in the western Southeast Coast District and eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt District. Locally severe fire danger is also expected in forested parts of the north and eastern Maranoa and Warrego District and the southern Central Highlands and Coalfields.
A southeasterly wind change is expected to move through the Southeast Coast District in the afternoon.
For the rest of Saturday 07 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Ottaba (27.1417°S, 152.3873°E, 167m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY17° 43° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:21am EST 4:48am EST 6:36pm EST 7:03pm EST NOW23.0° Feels Like: 19.1° Relative Humidity: 24% Dew: 1.4° Wind: W 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
OttabaNow25.1°cFeels Like:28.2°Wind:CAL 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:68%17°Min43°MaxToday in OttabaHot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a thunderstorm about the northern Sunshine Coast. Areas of smoke haze. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h shifting E/SE 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 42.Tomorrow20°Min39°MaxHot. Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower, most likely at night. The chance of a thunderstorm in the north from the late morning. Winds S/SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 37. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a thunderstorm about the northern Sunshine Coast. Areas of smoke haze. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h shifting E/SE 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 42.
Forecast for Ottaba (27.1417°S, 152.3873°E, 167m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 17° 20° 21° 20° 20° 20° 20° Maximum 43° 39° 37° 40° 41° 39° 37° Chance of rain 5% 40% 30% 20% 60% 80% 90% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 10-20mm UV index Extreme Extreme Very High Very High Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)20
(km/h)15
(km/h)19
(km/h)17
(km/h)24
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)16
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction SSW WSW ESE E ESE E NE ENE NE ENE NNE NE NNE ENE Relative humidity 18% 8% 59% 33% 59% 41% 56% 28% 52% 31% 50% 25% 53% 51% Dew point 7°C 2°C 20°C 20°C 21°C 21°C 20°C 18°C 20°C 21°C 18°C 16°C 20°C 23°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ottaba Rain Forecast
Ottaba 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
11
12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
LOW15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
HIGH26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
3
LOW4
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ottaba Rain Forecast
Ottaba 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ottaba Rain Forecast
Ottaba 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
11
12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
LOW15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
HIGH26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
3
LOW4
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ottaba Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0218.8 °C 33.0 °C 7.6 mmTuesday
Dec 0315.1 °C 34.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0414.0 °C 38.2 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0512.4 °C 39.4 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0612.6 °C 42 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ottaba minimum temp history (27.1417°S, 152.3873°E, 167m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 12.4° 05/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.0 04/12/2002 Coldest on record 8.8 05/12/1984 Hottest this year 42.9° 13/02/2019 Coldest this year 0.7° 20/07/2019 Long term average 31.1° Long term average 18.3° Average this month 36.0° Average this month 16.4° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.9° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.8° 2006 Ottaba rainfall history (27.1417°S, 152.3873°E, 167m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 12.8mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 99.5mm 9.4 days Wettest December on record 317.0mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Ottaba Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 767.2mm 89.0 day(s) Total For 2019 209.6mm 61.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 483.8mm 82.0 day(s) Wettest Day 22.4mm Mar30 Lowest Temperature 0.7°C Jul20 Highest Temperature 42.9°C Feb13 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ottaba Climatology
Ottaba Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.7 30.9 29.7 27.4 23.9 21.3 20.9 22.6 25.8 28.2 30.0 31.1 27.0 Mean Min (°C) 19.5 19.2 17.5 14.0 10.6 7.9 6.3 6.9 9.8 13.2 16.1 18.3 13.3 Mean Rain (mm) 112.4 99.1 79.8 47.4 45.6 41.9 36.6 26.9 35.2 63.4 79.4 99.5 768.1 Mean Rain Days 9.9 9.7 9.8 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.3 7.4 8.3 9.4 87.7