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Forecast

Orkabie (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Thunderstorms 25° 31°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 5-10mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:13am EST 5:37am EST 6:51pm EST 7:15pm EST
    NOW
    25.2° Feels Like: 31.1°
    Relative Humidity: 94%
    Dew: 24.2°
    Wind: CAL 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 32.6mm
    Pressure: 1011.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Orkabie
    Now
    25.0°c
    Feels Like:
    29.0°
    Wind:
    NNE 9km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    94%
    Thunderstorms
     
    25°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Today in Orkabie
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible heavy falls inland during this afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 34.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    25°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Orkabie

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible heavy falls inland during this afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 34.

    Forecast for Orkabie (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Thunderstorms Late shower Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Showers Possible shower
    Minimum 25° 25° 24° 24° 24° 24° 24°
    Maximum 31° 32° 32° 32° 32° 33° 33°
    Chance of rain 80% 50% 70% 80% 60% 50% 70%
    Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 8
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE ENE E ENE ESE ENE ESE ENE ESE ENE ESE ENE ESE E
    Relative humidity 77% 77% 67% 63% 68% 65% 70% 67% 67% 61% 60% 53% 63% 54%
    Dew point 25°C 26°C 23°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 23°C 24°C 23°C 24°C 22°C 22°C 22°C 22°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    HIGH
    31
    HIGH
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 26 February to 1 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 February to 6 February, and 10 February to 14 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    5
    5
    8
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    7
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    HIGH
    31
    HIGH
    Feb 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 26 February to 1 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 February to 6 February, and 10 February to 14 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Orkabie Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 20
    26.7 °C 33.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 21
    25.3 °C 34.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 22
    26.6 °C 34.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 23
    26.7 °C 33.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Jan 24
    27.5 °C 33 °C
    0.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Orkabie minimum temp history (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.7° 15/01/2020 Coldest this month 19.7° 17/01/2020
    Hottest on record 37.7 28/01/2013 Coldest on record 17.7 04/01/2012
    Hottest this year 34.7° 15/01/2020 Coldest this year 19.7° 17/01/2020
    Long term average 31.8° Long term average 23.0°
    Average this month 33.2° Average this month 23.5°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.7° 2013 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 22.4° 2012
    Orkabie rainfall history (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 30.8mm 17/01/2020 Total This Month 43.2mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 203.8mm 13.4 days Wettest January on record 363.4mm 2013
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for QLD

  16. Year to Date

    Orkabie Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 203.8mm 13.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 43.2mm 7.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 204.4mm 8.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 30.8mm Jan17
    Lowest Temperature 19.7°C Jan17
    Highest Temperature 34.7°C Jan15
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Orkabie Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.8 31.6 30.8 29.2 26.7 24.1 23.9 25.0 27.1 29.0 30.4 31.6 28.5
    Mean Min (°C) 23.0 22.9 21.6 18.4 14.6 12.6 10.9 11.3 14.9 17.5 20.3 22.1 17.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 203.8 211.2 164.4 40.2 30.6 42.9 51.1 29.2 25.8 24.6 57.3 134.6 1020.8
    Mean Rain Days 13.4 14.2 12.7 6.7 6.9 8.0 6.9 4.6 4.5 4.9 7.8 9.5 92.1