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Forecast

Orkabie (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Sunny 23°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:17am EST 6:41am EST 5:34pm EST 5:58pm EST
    NOW
    18.5° Feels Like: 14.6°
    Relative Humidity: 27%
    Dew: -0.8°
    Wind: SW 9km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1018.9hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Orkabie
    Now
    17.1°c
    Feels Like:
    16.0°
    Wind:
    S 11km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    78%
    Sunny
     
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Orkabie
    Sunny. Light winds becoming S 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Sunny. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 25.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Orkabie

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Sunny. Light winds becoming S 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.

    Forecast for Orkabie (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 13°
    Maximum 23° 24° 24° 24° 25° 25° 25°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 20% 10%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW ESE S ENE S ENE S E
    Relative humidity 50% 24% 60% 31% 53% 27% 55% 37% 66% 47% 78% 52% 73% 43%
    Dew point 3°C 1°C 4°C 5°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 8°C 10°C 12°C 14°C 13°C 14°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul13

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 9 August to 13 August, and 15 August to 19 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 14 August to 18 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 August to 5 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 16 August to 20 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    9
    8
    8
    8
    7
    8
    6
    7
    7
    8
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Orkabie Rain Forecast


    Orkabie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul13

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 9 August to 13 August, and 15 August to 19 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 14 August to 18 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 August to 5 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 16 August to 20 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Orkabie Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Jul 09
    16.3 °C 25.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Friday
    Jul 10
    15.1 °C 24.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 11
    12.2 °C 25.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 12
    11.9 °C 25.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jul 13
    13.5 °C 24.9 °C
    2.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Orkabie minimum temp history (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 25.6° 12/07/2020 Coldest this month 6.7° 06/07/2020
    Hottest on record 30.5 02/07/2009 Coldest on record 1.1 12/07/2014
    Hottest this year 35.0° 28/02/2020 Coldest this year 4.9° 24/06/2020
    Long term average 23.9° Long term average 10.9°
    Average this month 24.4° Average this month 11.9°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.8° 2009 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 7.6° 2007
    Orkabie rainfall history (21.8143°S, 149.367°E, 33m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 2.0mm 13/07/2020 Total This Month 4.0mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 51.1mm 6.9 days Wettest July on record 252.2mm 2016
    Driest on record 0.0mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for QLD

  16. Year to Date

    Orkabie Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 744.2mm 68.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 575.2mm 70.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 510.6mm 67.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 62.6mm Feb24
    Lowest Temperature 4.9°C Jun24
    Highest Temperature 35.0°C Feb28
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Orkabie Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.8 31.6 30.8 29.2 26.7 24.1 23.9 25.0 27.1 29.0 30.4 31.6 28.5
    Mean Min (°C) 23.0 22.9 21.6 18.4 14.6 12.6 10.9 11.3 14.9 17.5 20.3 22.1 17.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 203.8 211.2 164.4 40.2 30.6 42.9 51.1 29.2 25.8 24.6 57.3 134.6 1020.8
    Mean Rain Days 13.4 14.2 12.7 6.7 6.9 8.0 6.9 4.6 4.5 4.9 7.8 9.5 92.1