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Forecast

Oaky Creek (28.2024°S, 152.9359°E, 105m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 20° 25°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 40-80mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    4:42am EST 5:08am EST 6:49pm EST 7:15pm EST
    NOW
    20.5° Feels Like:  
    Relative Humidity:  
    Dew: 20.6°
    Wind: ESE 6km/h
    Gust: 6km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 77.8mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Oaky Creek
    Now
    19.9°c
    Feels Like:
    23.3°
    Wind:
    CAL 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    97%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    20°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Today in Oaky Creek
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, tending to rain at times in the south during this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with heavy falls during the morning in the south. Light winds becoming E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 29.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    20°
    Min
    30°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E/SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming NE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, tending to rain at times in the south during this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with heavy falls during the morning in the south. Light winds becoming E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 24 to 29.

    Forecast for Oaky Creek (28.2024°S, 152.9359°E, 105m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Showers Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 20° 20° 22° 23° 23° 23° 23°
    Maximum 25° 30° 33° 34° 34° 35° 34°
    Chance of rain 90% 80% 40% 50% 50% 30% 90%
    Likely amount 40-80mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 10-20mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E E NNE NE N NNE NNW N N NNE N NNE NNW NNE
    Relative humidity 95% 84% 83% 69% 78% 59% 75% 56% 75% 55% 77% 58% 76% 60%
    Dew point 21°C 22°C 23°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 25°C 23°C 25°C 25°C 24°C 25°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Oaky Creek Rain Forecast


    Oaky Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Oaky Creek Rain Forecast


    Oaky Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    3
    7
    4
    8
    7
    7
    7
    6
    6
    5
    4
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Oaky Creek Rain Forecast


    Oaky Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Oaky Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 13
    20.9 °C 29.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 14
    17.9 °C 31.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 15
    20.0 °C 30.0 °C
    10.4 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 16
    19.5 °C 29.0 °C
    10.2 mm
    Friday
    Jan 17
    21.3 °C 30 °C
    27.8 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Oaky Creek minimum temp history (28.2024°S, 152.9359°E, 105m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.8° 05/01/2020 Coldest this month 15.9° 04/01/2020
    Hottest on record 42.9 12/01/2002 Coldest on record 13.7 01/01/1978
    Hottest this year 34.8° 05/01/2020 Coldest this year 15.9° 04/01/2020
    Long term average 29.5° Long term average 19.7°
    Average this month 30.5° Average this month 19.6°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.0° 1987 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 17.5° 1981
    Oaky Creek rainfall history (28.2024°S, 152.9359°E, 105m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 11.0mm 12/01/2020 Total This Month 23.3mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 211.4mm 15.0 days Wettest January on record 820.4mm 1987
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for QLD

  16. Year to Date

    Oaky Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 211.4mm 15.0 day(s)
    Total For 2020 23.3mm 4.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 1.8mm 1.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 11.0mm Jan12
    Lowest Temperature 15.9°C Jan 4
    Highest Temperature 34.8°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Oaky Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.5 29.0 28.1 26.1 23.5 21.2 21.0 22.4 25.0 26.5 27.7 29.1 25.8
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.6 18.3 15.6 12.6 9.9 8.5 8.8 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.5 14.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 211.4 220.6 224.5 154.4 132.6 105.5 61.8 55.4 41.4 104.1 124.7 168.9 1611.2
    Mean Rain Days 15.0 15.9 17.0 14.2 12.6 11.0 8.7 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.8 13.6 143.0