Forecast
Ironbark (27.5581°S, 152.6712°E, 57m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY20° 38° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:20am EST 4:47am EST 6:38pm EST 7:04pm EST NOW37.6° Feels Like: 35.8° Relative Humidity: 28% Dew: 16.5° Wind: ENE 19km/h Gust: 33km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1010.0hPa -
Today Weather
IronbarkNow37.7°cFeels Like:36.5°Wind:SE 15km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:27%20°Min38°MaxToday in IronbarkHot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers inland, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming N/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.Tomorrow20°Min38°MaxHot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before shifting S/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 37. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ironbark
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers inland, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming N/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.
Forecast for Ironbark (27.5581°S, 152.6712°E, 57m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 20° 20° 20° 19° 19° 21° 18° Maximum 38° 38° 33° 37° 39° 37° 32° Chance of rain 40% 60% 60% 60% 30% 20% 10% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)29
(km/h)11
(km/h)28
(km/h)12
(km/h)25
(km/h)9
(km/h)26
(km/h)8
(km/h)26
(km/h)13
(km/h)25
(km/h)18
(km/h)32
(km/h)Wind direction NNE ENE NNE ENE ESE ESE ENE E N ENE NW ENE SE E Relative humidity 50% 37% 54% 41% 68% 61% 65% 53% 58% 42% 49% 30% 48% 39% Dew point 20°C 20°C 21°C 20°C 21°C 23°C 23°C 25°C 21°C 23°C 20°C 16°C 15°C 16°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ironbark Rain Forecast
Ironbark 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
MEDIUM8
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ironbark Rain Forecast
Ironbark 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ironbark Rain Forecast
Ironbark 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
LOW20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
MEDIUM8
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ironbark Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0715.7 °C 42.3 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0820.0 °C 33.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0919.6 °C 33.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1019.6 °C 37 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1121 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ironbark minimum temp history (27.5581°S, 152.6712°E, 57m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.3° 07/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.5° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.8 25/12/1972 Coldest on record 6.8 05/12/1955 Hottest this year 42.3° 07/12/2019 Coldest this year -3.2° 15/07/2019 Long term average 30.8° Long term average 18.4° Average this month 36.9° Average this month 16.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.3° 1957 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.4° 1999 Ironbark rainfall history (27.5581°S, 152.6712°E, 57m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.2mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 15.6mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 121.4mm 10.4 days Wettest December on record 394.4mm 1957 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Ironbark Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 860.5mm 101.1 day(s) Total For 2019 290.6mm 77.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 623.4mm 98.0 day(s) Wettest Day 28.0mm Oct12 Lowest Temperature -3.2°C Jul15 Highest Temperature 42.3°C Dec 7 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ironbark Climatology
Ironbark Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.2 30.4 29.4 27.2 24.1 21.6 21.2 22.8 25.6 27.8 29.6 30.8 26.8 Mean Min (°C) 19.6 19.5 17.8 14.0 10.0 7.1 5.4 6.2 9.5 13.3 16.3 18.4 13.1 Mean Rain (mm) 117.6 120.5 86.7 55.6 53.2 47.4 38.3 29.3 34.4 73.2 82.9 121.4 860.6 Mean Rain Days 10.7 11.5 11.2 7.7 7.6 6.5 6.4 5.7 6.0 8.4 9.0 10.4 99.6