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Forecast

Ellis Beach (16.7307°S, 145.6558°E, 22m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 25° 32°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 5-10mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:36am EST 6:00am EST 6:57pm EST 7:21pm EST
    NOW
    28.3° Feels Like: 32.2°
    Relative Humidity: 73%
    Dew: 23.0°
    Wind: W 7km/h
    Gust: 9km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1007.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Ellis Beach
    Now
    27.7°c
    Feels Like:
    31.6°
    Wind:
    SE 9km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    79%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    25°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Today in Ellis Beach
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 34.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    25°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 34.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Ellis Beach

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 34.

    Forecast for Ellis Beach (16.7307°S, 145.6558°E, 22m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Possible shower Showers Possible shower
    Minimum 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25°
    Maximum 32° 32° 33° 33° 33° 31° 31°
    Chance of rain 80% 70% 50% 40% 60% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 10-20mm 10-20mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 4
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE E ESE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE E E ESE E SE ESE
    Relative humidity 76% 77% 78% 75% 76% 72% 72% 70% 73% 73% 74% 73% 77% 73%
    Dew point 26°C 27°C 25°C 26°C 26°C 26°C 25°C 26°C 25°C 27°C 24°C 25°C 25°C 25°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ellis Beach Rain Forecast


    Ellis Beach 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    HIGH
    Feb 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ellis Beach Rain Forecast


    Ellis Beach 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    5
    5
    5
    7
    6
    7
    7
    8
    7
    8
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ellis Beach Rain Forecast


    Ellis Beach 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    HIGH
    Feb 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ellis Beach Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 18
    26.0 °C 37.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 19
    26.2 °C 34.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 20
    24.3 °C 33.7 °C
    11.8 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 21
    25.0 °C 33.7 °C
    1.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 22
    26.8 °C 32 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ellis Beach minimum temp history (16.7307°S, 145.6558°E, 22m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.5° 18/01/2020 Coldest this month 22.6° 01/01/2020
    Hottest on record 40.4 29/01/1967 Coldest on record 18.2 10/01/1943
    Hottest this year 37.5° 18/01/2020 Coldest this year 22.6° 01/01/2020
    Long term average 31.5° Long term average 23.7°
    Average this month 32.8° Average this month 24.4°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 33.6° 1994 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 22.5° 1943
    Ellis Beach rainfall history (16.7307°S, 145.6558°E, 22m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 33.4mm 05/01/2020 Total This Month 137.4mm
    13.0 days
    Long Term Average 390.2mm 18.5 days Wettest January on record 1417.4mm 1994
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for QLD

  16. Year to Date

    Ellis Beach Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 390.2mm 18.5 day(s)
    Total For 2020 137.4mm 13.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 151.6mm 15.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 33.4mm Jan 5
    Lowest Temperature 22.6°C Jan 1
    Highest Temperature 37.5°C Jan18
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ellis Beach Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.5 31.2 30.6 29.3 27.7 26.0 25.8 26.6 28.1 29.5 30.7 31.5 29.0
    Mean Min (°C) 23.7 23.8 23.1 21.7 19.9 17.9 17.1 17.4 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.4 20.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 390.2 447.1 415.5 196.0 91.5 47.7 29.9 26.9 33.3 47.4 92.7 176.7 2000.2
    Mean Rain Days 18.5 18.8 19.2 17.7 13.8 9.9 9.0 7.9 7.6 8.4 10.5 13.9 152.8