Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall And Large Hailstones
for parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 1:08 pm Friday, 13 December 2019.
Sunshine Coast area: Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones.
Gold Coast area: Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.
Weather Situation
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES for the following areas:
Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
Sunshine Coast area: Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones.
Gold Coast area: Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.
Locations which may be affected include Gold Coast, Maroochydore, Gympie, Caboolture, Gatton and Noosa Heads.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:10 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Dunwich (27.4993°S, 153.4024°E, 2m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY23° 29° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:18am EST 4:44am EST 6:35pm EST 7:02pm EST NOW27.5° Feels Like: 27.9° Relative Humidity: 67% Dew: 21.0° Wind: NNE 19km/h Gust: 24km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
DunwichNow27.8°cFeels Like:25.8°Wind:NNE 33km/hGusts:37km/hHumidity:69%23°Min29°MaxToday in DunwichPartly cloudy. High chance of showers and thunderstorms, most likely from late morning. Some thunderstorms will be severe. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h tending NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 33.Tomorrow22°Min29°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h turning E 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then tending NE in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 34. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers and thunderstorms, most likely from late morning. Some thunderstorms will be severe. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h tending NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 33.
Forecast for Dunwich (27.4993°S, 153.4024°E, 2m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 23° 22° 23° 23° 23° 21° 21° Maximum 29° 29° 31° 34° 28° 28° 30° Chance of rain 90% 70% 20% 10% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)17
(km/h)14
(km/h)23
(km/h)23
(km/h)25
(km/h)31
(km/h)38
(km/h)29
(km/h)26
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction NNE ENE ESE E N NE NNW NE S SSE SE SE ESE ENE Relative humidity 81% 79% 81% 81% 81% 80% 79% 78% 73% 70% 69% 66% 66% 67% Dew point 20°C 25°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 27°C 24°C 29°C 21°C 21°C 18°C 21°C 19°C 23°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Dunwich Rain Forecast
Dunwich 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Dunwich Rain Forecast
Dunwich 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346577736654105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Dunwich Rain Forecast
Dunwich 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
2
3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec13Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Dunwich Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0921.9 °C 32.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1023.6 °C 30.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1124.3 °C 30.2 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1222.3 °C 30 °C 0.3 mmFriday
Dec 1324 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Dunwich minimum temp history (27.4993°S, 153.4024°E, 2m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 35.0° 04/12/2019 Coldest this month 19.8° 05/12/2019 Hottest on record 36.5 25/12/2001 Coldest on record 15.7 08/12/2011 Hottest this year 35.0° 04/12/2019 Coldest this year 8.8° 15/07/2019 Long term average 28.0° Long term average 21.4° Average this month 31.2° Average this month 22.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.7° 2012 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 19.7° 2011 Dunwich rainfall history (27.4993°S, 153.4024°E, 2m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 8.9mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 122.7mm 12.7 days Wettest December on record 379.0mm 2012 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
-
Year to Date
Dunwich Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1516.0mm 145.0 day(s) Total For 2019 799.5mm 109.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 1252.9mm 122.0 day(s) Wettest Day 46.2mm Feb 6 Lowest Temperature 8.8°C Jul15 Highest Temperature 35.0°C Dec 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Dunwich Climatology
Dunwich Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.2 29.3 28.6 26.2 23.9 21.6 21.0 22.0 23.8 25.3 26.6 28.0 25.4 Mean Min (°C) 22.5 22.6 21.9 19.5 16.8 14.6 13.6 14.3 16.5 18.4 19.9 21.4 18.5 Mean Rain (mm) 146.8 146.4 141.0 181.4 161.2 173.8 100.5 68.1 57.6 94.5 122.0 122.7 1513.5 Mean Rain Days 13.3 13.0 15.7 15.4 12.4 12.7 11.7 8.2 8.7 9.1 12.1 12.7 139.7