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Forecast

Bogie (20.2692°S, 147.9532°E, 141m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers increasing 24° 36°
    showers increasing
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:18am EST 5:42am EST 6:55pm EST 7:19pm EST
    NOW
    24.0° Feels Like: 27.5°
    Relative Humidity: 99%
    Dew: 23.8°
    Wind: SW 11km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure: 1003.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Bogie
    Now
    22.2°c
    Feels Like:
    26.1°
    Wind:
    N 2km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    94%
    Showers increasing
     
    24°
    Min
    36°
    Max
    Today in Bogie
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon, possibly severe. Light winds becoming E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    23°
    Min
    38°
    Max
    Hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 37.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Bogie

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon, possibly severe. Light winds becoming E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.

    Forecast for Bogie (20.2692°S, 147.9532°E, 141m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Showers increasing Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Late thunder Late shower Showers increasing Showers
    Minimum 24° 23° 25° 26° 25° 25° 24°
    Maximum 36° 38° 38° 37° 35° 35° 35°
    Chance of rain 50% 20% 40% 60% 40% 60% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 0
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    1
    (km/h)
    1
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    1
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSE SW NNE NNE NNE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
    Relative humidity 74% 43% 65% 32% 62% 42% 67% 54% 68% 51% 69% 52% 70% 56%
    Dew point 24°C 22°C 23°C 19°C 23°C 23°C 25°C 25°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 26°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Bogie Rain Forecast


    Bogie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Bogie Rain Forecast


    Bogie 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    5
    5
    8
    7
    8
    8
    8
    8
    7
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Bogie Rain Forecast


    Bogie 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Bogie Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 13
    24.9 °C 36.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 14
    22.4 °C 38.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 15
    22.1 °C 36.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 16
    23.7 °C 38.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Jan 17
    24.3 °C -
    4.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Bogie minimum temp history (20.2692°S, 147.9532°E, 141m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 38.5° 11/01/2020 Coldest this month 20.3° 09/01/2020
    Hottest on record 44.0 06/01/1994 Coldest on record 15.0 20/01/1957
    Hottest this year 38.5° 11/01/2020 Coldest this year 20.3° 09/01/2020
    Long term average 33.5° Long term average 22.0°
    Average this month 36.4° Average this month 22.1°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 37.0° 1994 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 18.7° 1961
    Bogie rainfall history (20.2692°S, 147.9532°E, 141m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 4.0mm 17/01/2020 Total This Month 7.4mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 126.6mm 9.8 days Wettest January on record 479.2mm 1994
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for QLD

  16. Year to Date

    Bogie Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 126.6mm 9.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 7.4mm 3.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 35.7mm 4.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 4.0mm Jan17
    Lowest Temperature 20.3°C Jan 9
    Highest Temperature 38.5°C Jan11
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Bogie Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 33.5 33.0 32.1 30.3 27.6 25.2 25.1 26.9 29.8 32.2 33.5 34.1 30.2
    Mean Min (°C) 22.0 21.9 20.1 17.0 13.9 10.7 9.3 10.6 13.8 17.3 20.0 21.4 16.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 126.6 155.3 96.6 40.1 28.6 27.3 18.2 16.7 11.1 19.8 48.9 93.0 682.5
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 10.9 7.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.8 4.7 7.1 60.3