Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Fire Weather Warning
for Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders forecast district
Issued at 03:40 PM EST on Sunday 08 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot and windy conditions in the tropical interior will lead to Severe fire dangers tomorrow in the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders district.
Isolated pockets of Extreme fire danger are possible around Richmond and west of Hughenden, where the air mass will be drier during the afternoon.
Locally Severe conditions are also possible in northern parts of the Central West and Central Highlands & Coalfields districts; far southern parts of the Peninsula (south of Palmerville); and the southwest of the North Tropical Coast (inland from Herberton).
For Monday 09 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders
The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday.
Forecast
Bilwon (16.8503°S, 145.4466°E, 360m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY19° 32° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:13am EST 5:37am EST 6:44pm EST 7:08pm EST NOW19.5° Feels Like: 19.7° Relative Humidity: 85% Dew: 16.9° Wind: SE 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1015.1hPa -
Today Weather
BilwonNow24.7°cFeels Like:25.1°Wind:SSE 13km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:68%19°Min32°MaxToday in BilwonMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 34.Tomorrow20°Min31°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers near the coast, medium chance elsewhere. Winds E/SE 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 26 to 34. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 34.
Forecast for Bilwon (16.8503°S, 145.4466°E, 360m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 19° 20° 22° 21° 19° 20° 21° Maximum 32° 31° 31° 33° 36° 37° 35° Chance of rain 40% 60% 60% 30% 20% 60% 50% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 19
(km/h)23
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)16
(km/h)22
(km/h)13
(km/h)19
(km/h)7
(km/h)18
(km/h)2
(km/h)16
(km/h)3
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction ESE E ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE E E E WNW ENE ENE ENE Relative humidity 53% 33% 68% 61% 74% 59% 65% 43% 57% 33% 57% 37% 54% 41% Dew point 16°C 14°C 21°C 23°C 22°C 22°C 20°C 19°C 18°C 17°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 19°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bilwon Rain Forecast
Bilwon 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
2
3
LOW4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bilwon Rain Forecast
Bilwon 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020436576698785105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bilwon Rain Forecast
Bilwon 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
2
3
LOW4
5
6
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bilwon Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Dec 0420.9 °C 35.4 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0523.2 °C 34.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0622.4 °C 34.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 0720.4 °C 34.3 °C 2.4 mmSunday
Dec 0818.3 °C 37 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bilwon minimum temp history (16.8503°S, 145.4466°E, 360m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.1° 01/12/2019 Coldest this month 19.0° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 38.2 04/12/2012 Coldest on record 15.4 13/12/2005 Hottest this year 37.1° 01/12/2019 Coldest this year 6.6° 10/09/2019 Long term average 32.1° Long term average 20.8° Average this month 35.3° Average this month 21.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 33.9° 2001 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 19.3° 2013 Bilwon rainfall history (16.8503°S, 145.4466°E, 360m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.4mm 07/12/2019 Total This Month 2.4mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 90.3mm 11.0 days Wettest December on record 324.4mm 2001 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Bilwon Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 847.0mm 104.0 day(s) Total For 2019 640.0mm 87.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 726.2mm 76.0 day(s) Wettest Day 68.8mm Jan27 Lowest Temperature 6.6°C Sep10 Highest Temperature 37.1°C Dec 1 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bilwon Climatology
Bilwon Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.2 30.6 29.8 28.5 26.9 25.4 24.9 26.2 28.8 30.5 31.6 32.1 28.9 Mean Min (°C) 21.4 21.4 20.6 18.9 16.7 15.3 13.8 13.7 15.5 17.3 19.2 20.8 17.9 Mean Rain (mm) 216.6 233.5 159.3 42.6 12.2 12.5 6.2 8.3 4.0 12.9 48.6 90.3 851.4 Mean Rain Days 16.3 17.8 14.6 9.5 6.6 5.8 4.5 3.5 3.4 4.5 6.5 11.0 98.2