Forecast
Ball Bay (20.9045°S, 148.9951°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW24° 28° showers easing Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:45am EST 6:07am EST 6:14pm EST 6:36pm EST NOW26.9° Feels Like: 28.3° Relative Humidity: 77% Dew: 22.5° Wind: SE 19km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Ball BayNow26.6°cFeels Like:29.5°Wind:SE 11km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:79%24°Min28°MaxToday in Ball BayPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.Tomorrow24°Min28°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers from the late morning. Winds E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 34. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ball Bay
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.
Forecast for Ball Bay (20.9045°S, 148.9951°E, 0m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 24° 24° 24° 24° 24° 24° 24° Maximum 28° 27° 27° 27° 27° 27° 27° Chance of rain 70% 90% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index High Moderate High High High High High Fire Danger Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 19
(km/h)21
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)23
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)20
(km/h)16
(km/h)18
(km/h)17
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction SE SE SSE SE SE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE Relative humidity 80% 70% 80% 76% 75% 71% 78% 73% 81% 75% 79% 77% 80% 76% Dew point 23°C 22°C 23°C 23°C 22°C 21°C 22°C 22°C 23°C 22°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 23°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ball Bay Rain Forecast
Ball Bay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ball Bay Rain Forecast
Ball Bay 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025677888775767105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ball Bay Rain Forecast
Ball Bay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Ball Bay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1522.4 °C 31.1 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1624.3 °C 30.1 °C 0.6 mmSunday
Mar 1722.9 °C 29.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1824.1 °C 30.2 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1925.0 °C 29.9 °C 1.6 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ball Bay minimum temp history (20.9045°S, 148.9951°E, 0m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 32.2° 03/03/2024 Coldest this month 21.8° 11/03/2024 Hottest on record 34.7 08/03/1995 Coldest on record 13.1 31/03/1970 Hottest this year 36.6° 29/01/2024 Coldest this year 21.3° 01/01/2024 Long term average 28.8° Long term average 22.4° Average this month 29.8° Average this month 24.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.8° 2015 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 20.4° 1961 Ball Bay rainfall history (20.9045°S, 148.9951°E, 0m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 68.6mm 11/03/2024 Total This Month 131.2mm
12.0 daysLong Term Average 276.0mm 16.9 days Wettest March on record 949.2mm 2011 Driest on record 36.4mm 1991 -
Year to Date
Ball Bay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 861.1mm 48.7 day(s) Total For 2024 675.8mm 50.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 814.0mm 42.0 day(s) Wettest Day 116.8mm Feb 1 Lowest Temperature 21.3°C Jan 1 Highest Temperature 36.6°C Jan29 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Ball Bay Climatology
Ball Bay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.2 29.8 28.8 26.8 24.3 22.0 21.4 22.7 25.4 27.8 29.4 30.3 26.6 Mean Min (°C) 23.6 23.5 22.4 20.3 17.2 14.3 13.2 14.1 16.8 19.8 21.8 23.1 19.1 Mean Rain (mm) 277.8 307.3 276.0 147.8 104.3 59.7 43.1 30.1 19.6 34.7 89.5 184.1 1572.7 Mean Rain Days 15.2 16.6 16.9 15.9 13.6 10.5 10.1 8.2 5.9 6.7 9.0 12.0 140.7