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Forecast

Tortilla Flats (13.0886°S, 131.2284°E, 23m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 24° 39°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:48am CST 6:11am CST 7:03pm CST 7:26pm CST
    NOW
    36.8° Feels Like: 37.8°
    Relative Humidity: 35%
    Dew: 19.2°
    Wind: NW 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Tortilla Flats
    Now
    36.4°c
    Feels Like:
    38.6°
    Wind:
    NNW 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    37%
    Mostly sunny
     
    24°
    Min
    39°
    Max
    Today in Tortilla Flats
    Mostly sunny. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    25°
    Min
    39°
    Max
    Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Tortilla Flats

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

    Forecast for Tortilla Flats (13.0886°S, 131.2284°E, 23m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible thunderstorm Mostly sunny Possible thunderstorm Possible thunderstorm Possible thunderstorm
    Minimum 24° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25° 25°
    Maximum 39° 39° 39° 39° 39° 39° 37°
    Chance of rain 5% 30% 40% 40% 40% 80% 80%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW NW NW N N N NNW NE W W NW NNW NW NW
    Relative humidity 67% 28% 66% 33% 67% 36% 68% 35% 67% 37% 68% 43% 70% 48%
    Dew point 24°C 18°C 25°C 20°C 25°C 22°C 25°C 21°C 25°C 22°C 25°C 24°C 25°C 24°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tortilla Flats Rain Forecast


    Tortilla Flats 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    HIGH
    Jan 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tortilla Flats Rain Forecast


    Tortilla Flats 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    1
    6
    7
    6
    8
    6
    9
    10
    1
    8
    8
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tortilla Flats Rain Forecast


    Tortilla Flats 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    31
    HIGH
    Jan 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 6

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tortilla Flats Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Dec 02
    23.5 °C 36.5 °C
    0.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Dec 03
    24.7 °C 35.9 °C
    2.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Dec 04
    24.6 °C 36.1 °C
    9.4 mm
    Thursday
    Dec 05
    25.5 °C 37.8 °C
    0.2 mm
    Friday
    Dec 06
    24 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Tortilla Flats minimum temp history (13.0886°S, 131.2284°E, 23m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 23.5° 02/12/2019
    Hottest on record 39.8 02/12/2006 Coldest on record 19.9 11/12/2009
    Hottest this year 41.9° 20/10/2019 Coldest this year 8.7° 25/06/2019
    Long term average 33.8° Long term average 24.1°
    Average this month 35.9° Average this month 24.9°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 36.2° 2002 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 23.7° 1998
    Tortilla Flats rainfall history (13.0886°S, 131.2284°E, 23m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 9.4mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 12.4mm
    5.0 days
    Long Term Average 323.1mm 18.7 days Wettest December on record 701.6mm 2002
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NT

  16. Year to Date

    Tortilla Flats Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 1653.6mm 107.5 day(s)
    Total For 2019 818.0mm 90.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 1312.6mm 95.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 58.6mm Mar22
    Lowest Temperature 8.7°C Jun25
    Highest Temperature 41.9°C Oct20
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Tortilla Flats Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 32.7 32.4 33.1 33.8 32.9 31.6 31.9 33.3 36.0 36.8 35.7 33.8 33.7
    Mean Min (°C) 24.0 23.8 23.5 21.8 19.0 16.9 16.3 17.0 20.6 23.0 24.0 24.1 21.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 343.3 357.0 277.1 98.0 28.8 0.5 0.9 2.4 9.6 66.5 146.4 323.1 1659.6
    Mean Rain Days 19.4 20.1 17.4 6.7 2.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 7.5 12.2 18.7 100.0